The Boston Red Sox acquiring Kyle Schwarber at the trade deadline proved to be a shrewd move. The slugger's time with the Sox, however, could be unsurprisingly short.
Schwarber has made the expected decision to decline a mutual option for the 2022 season, instead electing for free agency this winter. That decision obviously increases the likelihood he was simply a rental for the Red Sox.
The former Chicago Cub is coming off arguably the best season of his career, making it a foregone conclusion he would decline his option. The 28-year-old hit 32 home runs and drove in 71 runs in just 113 games, as a hamstring injury likely cost him the chance to set new career-high totals in each. His .928 OPS was the best mark of his career, almost 100 points higher than his career OPS. The option for the 2021 season would have been worth a reported $11.5 million, which is considerably below market value for a player like Schwarber, who was worth more than three wins above replacement in 2021 despite the missed time.
Boston certainly got an extended look at what he can do. Schwarber hit .291 with seven home runs and 18 RBIs in 41 regular-season games with the Red Sox, and he helped stabilize the offense. He came up with one of the club's biggest hits in the postseason and also proved to be a seamless clubhouse fit.
Players who get to market tend to sign elsewhere, which decreases the chance Schwarber returns to Boston, of course. If baseball adopts the universal designated hitter as part of a new collective bargaining agreement, it makes it even more difficult to re-sign Schwarber. While he spent the entirety of his career in the National League before Washington traded him to Boston, Schwarber certainly carries more value as someone who also can be used as a DH, likely driving up his price even more.
There is, however, a case to be made for re-signing Schwarber, who said after the Red Sox season ended he'd be open to returning. Like a lot of Boston's potential offseason moves, a decision about Schwarber likely is tied to whatever J.D. Martinez decides he wants to do. Martinez can opt out of the final year of his Red Sox contract and elect free agency this winter, too. At least one report indicates that's the direction Martinez is leaning.
Martinez opting out would at least slightly increase the likelihood of Schwarber returning. While the Red Sox more or less made it work for a few months, Schwarber and Martinez are a little redundant on the same roster as players with incredible offensive prowess but limited defensive value. Martinez opting out and signing elsewhere would leave a considerable hole in the Boston lineup, which Schwarber certainly could fill. If he's open to being a DH, that's a natural move, and the Sox could even continue to see if Schwarber could play first base, and he'd also be a capable enough backup outfielder.
If Martinez takes the option for 2021, though, it becomes hard to find a place for Schwarber.
But even if Martinez leaves, Schwarber returning is no certainty. It will be fascinating to see whether the Red Sox pursue any of the premier free agents, a class Schwarber falls just below. And on the other hand, maybe a Schwarber market develops that proves too rich for Boston's blood.
If the stars do align, though, and Schwarber finds himself in Boston again next year, we already know he's more than capable of doing damage as a member of the Red Sox.
