The third preseason game is the most important of the preseason slate, as starters typically play more in that game than in any other, but caution is still advised when it comes to summer stats. With that caveat, let's take a look at the current value board. Each player's ADP, or Average Draft Position, is based on the results of hundreds of recent fantasy drafts, courtesy of our friends at MockDraftCentral.com.
Upgrades
Aaron Rodgers, QB, Packers (ADP: 40): Why isn't Rodgers getting more hype? In 2008, he threw for over 4,000 yards and 28 touchdowns. Those are great stats for any quarterback, but they were even more remarkable for a first-time starter like Rodgers. With a year's experience under his belt and a stud wide receiver like Greg Jennings to throw to, I see no reason why Rodgers can't post 4,200 yards and 30-35 TDs. That makes him more valuable than Philip Rivers (ADP: 41), who may have trouble duplicating last year's stats with so few pass attempts (476, compared to 538 for Rodgers). Rodgers also ran a lot of goal-line sneaks last season, resulting in four rushing TDs (the equivalent of six passing TDs in most formats). And the pass defenses in his division all are sub-par at best. I absolutely prefer Rodgers two rounds later than Drew Brees (ADP: 17) and would not be at all surprised to see him enter the Tom Brady (ADP: 20) and Peyton Manning (ADP: 26) tier this season.
Fred Jackson, RB, Bills (ADP: 110): I can count on one hand the number of backs in the NFL who are better receivers out of the backfield than Jackson. Marshawn Lynch, still first on the depth chart, is suspended for three games, making Jackson the Bills' sure-fire starter through September. Jackson has always impressed when given a chance to start (136 yards rushing against the Patriots in Week 17). So why is Jackson getting drafted 63 picks after Lynch (ADP: 47)? If Jackson plays well early, as I think he will, I expect the Bills to split carries the rest of the season, making Jackson nearly as valuable as Lynch (especially in PPR leagues). And that's after Lynch returns. I'd gladly draft Jackson before guys like LeSean McCoy (ADP: 104) and Willis McGahee (ADP: 100).
Greg Jennings, WR, Packers (ADP: 24): Everything I wrote about Rodgers applies to Jennings. This stud WR is exactly the type of high-floor player I want in the early rounds, as 1,200-1,300 yards and nine to 10 TDs are a given. Jennings compares favorably to Steve Smith (ADP: 23, too injury prone), Roddy White (ADP: 22, sharing touches with Tony Gonzalez and Michael Turner) and Reggie Wayne (ADP: 19, fell off last year and lacks Jennings's explosiveness). And Jennings is just as good as Andre Johnson (ADP: 10).
Antonio Gates, TE, Chargers (ADP: 51): Don't draft Gates based on last year's stats — he was nicked up all season long. He's healthy again, so bank on stats like he posted from 2005-2007, when he averaged 1,000 yards and nine TDs. Remember, in prior years, savvy owners took him as a third-round choice, knowing they were getting WR-type production from the tight end spot.
No Change
Backup TEs and Ks: It drives me crazy to see teams waste roster spots on second kickers and tight ends. With the frequency of injuries in the NFL, especially at running back, it's far more wise to use the late draft choice on a running back or WR with upside — somebody like Robert Meachem (ADP: 204), a former first-rounder who could emerge at WR in a high-scoring Saints offense, or Mike Goodson (ADP: 209), a RB sleeper in light of Jonathan Stewart's injury issues.
Downgrades
Kyle Orton, QB, Broncos (ADP: 138): Does anyone else think the Broncos are going to have a 4-12 type of season, that Chris Simms (ankle) will get a chance to start midway through the season and that Josh McDaniels will be mocked all season?
Jonathan Stewart, RB, Panthers (ADP: 75): Consider Stewart one of those exceptions to the "don't change your opinion based on preseason" rule. It's not just that he's been sidelined for most of training camp with an Achilles issue. Stewart's injury has been lingering for several months — as far back as minicamp and OTAs. My concern is that Stewart won't be 100 percent at any point this season.
Terrell Owens, WR, Bills (ADP: 34): Downgraded like Stewart for health reasons — lingering toe injury. WRs need their wheels. Remember how Antonio Gates was hampered by a similar toe injury all last year? His stats suffered. The risk of T.O. suffering a similar fate is too high to draft him at full value. Instead, draft Kevin Smith (ADP: 34) or Rodgers (ADP: 39).
