After this weekend, for all the teams without the bye, 25 percent of the season will be over. Do not delude yourself into thinking it's still early, because it's getting late.
I see some surprising things. Here's a sampling.
The Saints have a good ground game. However, there tends to be a disappointingly weak connection between passing well and running well.
The Giants are 23rd in touchdown rushes per game. That will change given how they steamrolled Tampa Bay like the 2008 Big Blue. So, hang in there Brandon Jacobs owners.
Is sack percentage a line or a QB stat? I've always tended to put a lot of responsibility on the QB. But Brett Favre has avoided sacks his entire career and his Vikings are 27th. Maybe he's lost some reflexes or that sixth sense of avoiding danger. Either way, that kind of rate is untenable and will cause his consecutive games streak to end unless it significantly corrects.
The Chargers are last in yards per rush. Darren Sproles is not a guy who can be a feature back because he's not only short, but small. This should be very good news for Philip Rivers, because LaDainian Tomlinson (ankle) is now old and injured. But Norv Turner is not a quick study and very stubborn. Bill Simmons of ESPN had that great story a while back about Turner playing blackjack and sticking on 16 three straight times when the dealer was showing a face card. He would have kept doing it if the people at the table with him didn't complain so loudly that he was forced to leave.
This is how I feel when he doesn't throw to Antonio Gates in the red zone despite a streak where San Diego is 1-for-11 converting. "The coach is killing me!"
The Browns are at or near the bottom everywhere and have scored one offensive touchdown in their last nine games dating back to last year.
The Patriots aren't scoring ? they're 20th in touchdown passes per game and 16th in touchdown runs per game. But they are showing strength ? fourth in red zone possessions, fourth in third-down conversion rate and first in sack percentage allowed. Tom Brady will explode very soon. Randy Moss looks like he lost a step but had at least two to lose.
The Falcons being 26th in yards per rush is very concerning, too. They sacrificed some run blocking by picking up Tony Gonzalez. But Gonzalez should prevent teams from putting an extra man in the box. I'd like to see the Falcons use formations better to split Gonzo out wider, getting him of the line. Why block a guy if you don't have to?
Now for some related recommendations.
Buy
Tashard Choice, RB, Cowboys: Felix Jones (knee) is a thoroughbred both in terms of running ability and durability. Marion Barber will have to play through a groin injury. I can see Choice getting the majority of Cowboy carries going forward and even if that's a 30 percent chance, it's well worth the free agent pickup.
Glen Coffee, RB, Niners: He looked bad in Minnesota ? 54 yards on 25 carries. He gets two starts around a bye while Frank Gore (ankle) is out. I generally dislike like taller, thinner runners and Coffee is 6-foot, 205. But if you own Gore or need help for another struggling back, he's at least a body. Coffee is a straight-line guy who is not fast by scat-back standards.
Hold
Tony Romo, Cowboys: Everyone is panicked about the run-emphasis, but the Cowboys have always been a running team. Romo still threw 33 passes. He will fill the spot and offer some explosive weeks, too.
Sell
Darren McFadden, RB, Raiders: McFadden falls down so often it's like he's running on ice. That's when no one is tackling him. The speed doesn't seem to translate in pads, either. And JaMarcus Russell is an utter failure who can't move the chains. He'll lose goal-line carries to Michael Bush (and really should be losing most carries to Bush).
Steve Smith, WR, Panthers: Don't pull the trigger yet. Wait for the next plausibly good game and move him. Jake Delhomme is a big drag on his production and now he's getting frustrated and breaking off routes, leading to more problems and picks.
