Last week, we set up in shotgun formation, gauging the values of various quarterbacks and wide receivers. As we enter Week 10 of the NFL season, let’s go I-formation, tuck the pigskin under our arm and evaluate some running backs. As always, my recommendations are based not just on the talent of these RBs, but also on the circumstances surrounding them.
Upgrades
Pierre Thomas, Saints: After his Week 3 explosion against the Bills (126 yards and two touchdowns, all in the second half), I upgraded Thomas in this column, arguing that he might wind up as fantasy’s second-best player behind Adrian Peterson. Several weeks later, we’re finally seeing what I envisioned. As the feature back on the NFL’s best offense, Thomas is as reliable as any non-QB in fantasy. He’s money in the bank (well, that’s not a good metaphor anymore). You know the Saints are going to score every week, especially with their schedule (Rams, Bucs next two weeks), so Thomas will get “his” every game, particularly now that Mike Bell has rightfully taken a secondary role in the offense. I realize that Chris Johnson, Maurice Jones-Drew and DeAngelo Williams have more potential to explode in any given week, but they all play on bad offenses, so they’re going to give you some duds, too. With the fantasy playoffs approaching, I want the consistent scoring that Thomas provides. Remember, one bad week and you’re eliminated.
Michael Turner, Falcons: Speaking of consistent scoring, did you know that Chris Johnson has five games without a TD but Michael Turner has scored at least once every game since Week 2? His explosion is back, too, and even though it seems like he’s been around forever, Turner is still just 27 and has low mileage on his legs (thanks largely to all those years where he was a backup in San Diego). If you can get Turner for Chris Johnson or MJD and upgrade a starter at another position in the process, do so.
Running backs against bad rush defenses: The teams with bad rush defenses can’t hide anymore. After nine games, we know who you are — the stats don’t lie. Start your RBs with confidence against the Bills (5.1 YPC, 12 TDs allowed — even LenDale White is an option this week if you’re really hurting); Browns (4.9 YPC, 12 TDs); Bucs (4.8 YPC); and Lions (4.7 YPC; Chester Taylor could pile up garbage-time stats this week).
No Change
DeAngelo Williams, Panthers: Williams (knee, check status) is such an awesome talent, it makes you wonder — as colleagues Mike Salfino and Scott Pianowski have mused in their Breakfast Table — how John Fox could have started DeShaun Foster over him in prior years. (That decision alone should be Fox’s ticket out of Carolina; the decision to extend Delhomme’s contract this offseason just cements his fate.)
The reason I’m not tripping over myself to upgrade Williams, though, is the situation he’s in. The Panthers’ ceiling is limited with Delhomme at QB, and that’s why Williams, as good as he is, has zero carries inside the 5-yard line in the past three weeks. (By contrast, Turner has just two such games all season.) Nobody can score from distance every week (ask Barry Sanders); you have to get some easy TDs to pad the stats. Unfortunately, the Panthers aren’t good enough to get into those situations, and even when they do, Jonathan Stewart vultures a lot of that action. Williams is still a stud and a sure-fire, every-week starter (hence the “No Change”), but I’d rather start Thomas or Turner down the stretch, particularly with Williams’ schedule (at Pats, Vikings, at Giants for the fantasy playoffs).
Ronnie Brown, Dolphins: Brown has been held under 50 yards rushing each of the past three games, and the timing of that is no coincidence. Three weeks ago, the Saints started blitzing both corners whenever the Dolphins lined up in the Wildcat. Subsequent defenses followed suit (it’s a copycat league, folks) and Brown has been held in check ever since. Unless Brown can start throwing the ball effectively enough to force opposing cornerbacks to stay at home (which even the Dolphins doubt he can do, and that’s why backup QB Pat White received more playing time in the Wildcat), don’t expect Brown to run wild. He avoids a downgrade, though, in light of the Dolphins schedule — Bucs, Panthers and Bills the next three weeks. Expect these favorable matchups to help mask the fact that defensive coordinators have figured out how to defend the Wildcat.
Knowshon Moreno, Broncos: I can’t tell if the Broncos offense is pop gun or pop warner. For the love of God, throw the ball downfield! It’s maddening to watch the Broncos, and I’m not even a Broncos fan. As an ultra-conservative offense coming off a five-carry performance against an awesome Steelers defense, expect the Broncos to do everything they can to re-establish Moreno against the Redskins this week. I suspect he will get on track, and he has some favorable matchups coming up (Chargers, Chiefs, Raiders). If the Broncos remain stuck in the mud this week, downgrade him.
Downgrades
LaDainian Tomlinson, Chargers: If I bury this guy any more, he’ll be hanging out with King Tut. At this point, his best-case scenario on any given Sunday is 15 carries, 50 yards and a short-yardage TD. And that’s only because Norv Turner is stubborn, the Chargers offense is good and they have nobody else to run in short yardage. Expect the Chargers to waive Tomlinson this offseason and to draft a RB in the early rounds of the 2010 draft.
