But there’s little arguing that Nadal is the greatest clay-court player of all time, and thus the lefty is the 5-6 favorite at Bovada to win this year’s tournament.
Last year, Nadal beat Roger Federer 7-5, 7-6 (3), 5-7, 6-1 for a record-tying sixth French Open championship and 10th major title overall. Hall of Famer Bjorn Borg is the only other player in the modern era with six French titles. Nadal has won his six in the past seven years and is 45-1 all-time at the tournament. His lone loss came in the fourth round of the 2009 tournament to Robin Soderling, when Nadal wasn’t 100 percent healthy.
Nadal appears to be peaking at the right time. He took some time off to heal up after finishing runner-up at this year’s first major, the Australian Open. Now healthy, Nadal has won two clay-court titles in the past few weeks in Barcelona and Rome. On Monday he beat top-ranked Novak Djokovic 7-5, 6-3 in a rain-delayed final to win his record sixth Italian Open and regain the No. 2 world ranking. After losing to Djokovic in seven straight finals — including Rome last year — Nadal has now won two straight against the top-ranked Serb after also capturing the Monte Carlo Masters on clay.
Djokovic is at 9-4 to win his first French Open, the only Grand Slam championship to have eluded the Serb thus far. Djokovic has played in seven French Opens with a best result of reaching the semifinals three times, including last year, when he lost to Federer.
Djokovic has already lost five times this season, compared to last year when he entered the French Open 37-0. His fifth loss last season didn’t come until his final event in November. Djokovic has won four of the past five Grand Slam events, however, and holds the other three Grand Slam titles, having beaten Nadal in the finals of Wimbledon, the U.S. Open and Australian Open. So, a win in Paris would complete the rare career Grand Slam.
Federer, the all-time Grand Slam titles holder, hasn’t won a slam championship since taking No. 15 overall at the 2010 Australian Open. Federer, who is 8-1 to win this year, has reached the French finals in five of the past six years, but his only title came in 2009, when he didn’t have to face Nadal. Nadal has beaten Federer the other four times for the championship, including last year. That has been the only Grand Slam final for Federer since his 2010 Aussie Open win.
Federer has played well this year with four singles titles and did beat his nemesis Nadal in March, at the semifinals of the Indian Wells tournament. But Federer lost in four sets to Nadal, who will be on his side of the draw in Paris, in the semifinals of the Australian Open. Federer has played Djokovic just once this year, losing last week in the Italian Open.
There is a large drop-off from the Big 3 to the rest of the field, led by Juan Martin Del Potro at 20-1 and Andy Murray at 28-1. Del Potro, who is No. 9 in the world, has played the French Open five times with a best finish of the semifinals in 2009. He has made it past the semis in just one career Grand Slam, when he won the 2009 U.S. Open in upset fashion.
Murray, No. 4 in the world, is looking to end Great Britain’s nearly 100-year drought for Grand Slam titles. Murray is certainly the best active player still looking for a slam title. He reached the semifinals in Paris last year, which is his best result in the French Open.
The top American hope figures to be big John Isner at 66-1. The 6-foot-9 Isner, ranked No. 10 in the world, has played the French three times, with a best finish of the third round two years ago. He has never reached a Grand Slam semifinal. An American hasn’t won the French Open since Andre Agassi in 1999.
