Patriots Betting Update: Up-To-Date Odds, Futures And Props After Week 4

Oddsmakers have taken notice of New England's 2-2 start

by Sean T. McGuire

October 6, 2020

The first quarter of the 2020 season is over, and its been eventful, to say the least.

The Patriots are 2-2 so far, and quarterback Cam Newton has shown he has what it takes to keep New England relevant after the departure of Tom Brady.

That said, oddsmakers have taken notice of a good-not-great start from the Patriots, which has featured losses to playoff-bound teams like the Kansas City Chiefs and Seattle Seahawks. And while those teams are atop NESN’s Week 5 Power Rankings, the losses still have impacted the Patirots’ odds in almost all categories.

(For a refresher, here’s our Patriots Betting Preview before the 2020 season began.)

Now, let’s take a look at where things stand with updated odds, futures and even a player prop. All lines are via consensus data.

What are the Patriots’ odds to win AFC East?
Oddsmakers have seen what the 4-0 Buffalo Bills have accomplished during the early going, and it’s impacted New England’s lines on the division.

New England, who had odds varying between +115 to +135 to begin the season, now range between +180 and +205. Buffalo, which had odds anywhere between even money and +120 at the start, now see odds of -240 to -280.

The Bills have benefitted from seeing both the New York Jets and Miami Dolphins thus far, which gives them another win against the division for oddsmakers to weigh in.

What are the Patriots’ odds to win the AFC Championship?
As you’d expect, New England’s odds worsening for the division certainly had a trickle down effect.

New England’s odds to win the AFC Championship, which was around 10-to-1 before the season, now measure in at 14-to-1. They are behind the Kansas City Chiefs (7-to-4), Baltimore Ravens (3-to-1), Buffalo Bills (7-to-1), Pittsburgh Steelers (9-to-1) and even the Indianapolis Colts (10-to-1) with a few of said teams jumping them after four games.

What are the Patriots’ Super Bowl odds?
The Patriots have the 12th best odds to win the Super Bowl, trailing the previously mentioned AFC teams, as well as Seattle Seahawks (8-to-1), Green Bay Packers (10-to-1), New Orleans Saints (14-to-1), Los Angeles Rams (22-to-1) even the banged-up San Francisco 49ers (25-to-1).

New England’s odds to claim their seventh Super Bowl, which varied between +1800 and +2100 at the start, now sit around +2800.

Cam Newton Odds
It’s not all downhill for the Patriots, however. Their first-year quarterback impressed with his legs Week 1 and his arm Week 2, prior to missing Week 4 due to testing positive for COVID-19.

Newton’s MVP odds have strengthened since the start of the season due to those performances. He previously came in around 30-to-1 to win the 2020 NFL MVP Award, and now sits at 25-to-1 behind a top-3 including Russell Wilson, Patrick Mahomes and Aaron Rodgers.

Newton’s odds for Comeback Player of the Year, previously between +340 and +400, have also increased to +275. He remains behind only Pittsburgh Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger, who was the betting favorite at the beginning of the season, as well.

Stephon Gilmore Odds
The Patriots cornerback had a rough start to the season, and his odds to repeat as the league’s Defensive Player of the Year reflect that.

Gilmore’s lines widely varied before the season, from +1700 to +2500, however, now his lines fall outside of he top-10 and sit at more than +2900.

Julian Edelman Prop Bet
We previously included a prop for the Patriots receiver, specifically regarding his touchdown reception over/under set for 4.5.

And while Patriots fans might not be happy about it, bettors who took the under are. Edelman has yet to record a touchdown this season, after tallying six in each of the last two.

We’ll see how all these odds change at the midway point of the season.

Thumbnail photo via Brian Fluharty/USA TODAY Sports Images

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