Bills-49ers Betting Preview: Trends, Props, Pick For ‘Monday Night Football’

The 49ers will play host to the Bills on Monday night, but the primetime contest won’t be held in San Francisco.

Due to COVID-19 restrictions currently in place in California, the Niners are forced to temporarily have their home base in Arizona. Kyle Shanahan’s team now is set to play its first “home” game at State Farm Stadium against the AFC East-leading Buffalo Bills.

This contest will mark the Bills’ second game in Arizona in less than a month. Josh Allen and Co. suffered a heartbreaking loss to the Cardinals back in Week 10.

Here’s our betting preview for the Bills-49ers Week 14 clash:

Buffalo Bills at (-1.5) San Francisco 49ers
Total: 47.5

BETTING TRENDS
As you might imagine, the 8-3 Bills haven’t been pegged as betting underdogs on many occasions this season. But Buffalo has fared well in the limited scenarios, going 2-1 against the spread including an outright win over the Seattle Seahawks.

The 49ers, meanwhile, were tabbed as favorites for five of their 11 games to date this season. San Francisco went 2-3 ATS in those contests, including an outright home loss to the lowly Philadelphia Eagles.

Perhaps the Niners will benefit from a change of scenery, however. Home field hasn’t been much of an advantage in 2020 for the reigning NFC champions, who currently own a 1-4 ATS record at Levi’s Stadium. The Bills are an underwhelming 2-3 ATS outside of upstate New York.

PROPS
First-half line, total
49ers -0.5, 23.5

First touchdown scorer
Raheem Mostert +750
Stefon Diggs +1000
Josh Allen +1100
Deebo Samuel +1200
Tevin Coleman +1300
Cole Beasley +1300

Passing yards
Josh Allen over/under 269.5 yards
Nick Mullens over/under 250.5 yards

Rushing yards
Raheem Mostert over/under 53.5 yards
Devin Singletary over/under 36.5 yards
Zack Moss over/under 34.5 yards

Receiving yards
Stefon Diggs over/under 77.5 yards
Cole Beasley over/under 56.5 yards
Deebo Samuel over/under 54.5 yards
Brandon Aiyuk over/under 51.5 yards

PICK
Bills +1.5

There’s no denying the 49ers’ Week 12 win was impressive. San Francisco edged out the NFC West rival Los Angeles Rams, who were coming of back-to-back wins over the Seahawks and Tampa Bay Buccaneers, respectively.

But prior to that much-needed victory, the Niners fell to Seattle, Green Bay and New Orleans in consecutive weeks. The offenses of those teams rank among the best in the league, similar to the Bills’ unit. Buffalo enters this contest averaging nearly 34 points per game over its last three matchups.

The Bills’ defense finally might be rounding into form, too. Buffalo limited a talented Los Angeles Chargers offense to 17 points last week. A few key offensive players have returned to the lineup for San Francisco, but it still is without starting quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo and all-world tight end George Kittle.

To put it simply, we don’t believe the 49ers currently have the horses to keep up with the Bills on offense. With an important primetime tilt against the Pittsburgh Steelers awaiting in Week 14, we believe Buffalo will recognize the opportunity and take care of business.