NHL Odds: Why Hurricanes Can Expose Flyers’ Even-Strength Woes

Carolina's surge is likely too much for the Flyers

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We’re heading into a weekend full of NHL action with a five-game Friday night slate.

Back-to-backs are a common theme among Friday’s teams, as three squads are on the second night of a back-to-back, while five more are on the first. That leaves the Chicago Blackhawks as the odd team out that only has to focus on player usage for Friday evening’s game. Goaltending scenarios factor into every other team’s usage on Friday night.

Philadelphia Flyers vs. Carolina Hurricanes Moneyline, Total and Odds
Moneyline:
Flyers +160|Hurricanes -194

Spread: Flyers +1.5 (-152)|Hurricanes -1.5 (+122)

Total: Over 6 -110|Under -110

Philadelphia Flyers vs. Carolina Hurricanes News, Analysis, and Picks
The Carolina Hurricanes have the best points percentage in the NHL and have a Friday night encounter with the Philadelphia Flyers. Philadelphia is three games above .500, but its advanced metrics imply the club is substantially overachieving.

The Flyers sit 12th in the league with a .636 points percentage through 11 games. However, their five-on-five expected goals-for percentage has the Flyers ranked 24th in the league. Philadelphia has been particularly underwhelming over their recent sample of games, getting outplayed in five of six. Cumulatively over that stretch, the Flyers have posted a high-danger chances-for percentage of 38.8% and a scoring chances-for percentage of 47.0%.

Those metrics won’t fly against a Canes team that continues to outplay their opponents. Carolina has posted an expected goals-for percentage above 50.0% in five straight games, out-possessing and out-chancing its opponents in scoring possibilities in all five games. The Canes are well-positioned to prolong that hot streak on home ice, where they have attempted 10 or more high-danger chances at five-on-five in four of their five games.

Carolina is deserving of its betting price, which should continue to shift in its favor towards puck drop. With Frederik Andersen playing the way he has been, we’re confident in backing the home side.

The Pick: Hurricanes -194

Calgary Flames vs. Toronto Maple Leafs Moneyline, Total and Odds
Moneyline:
Flames +146|Maple Leafs 176

Spread: Flames +1.5 (-188)|Maple Leafs -1.5 (+152)

Total: 5.5 Over -115|Under -105

Odds courtesy of Fanduel Sportsbook. Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook today and get your first bet risk-free for up to $1,000.

Calgary Flames vs. Toronto Maple Leafs News, Analysis, and Picks
The Calgary Flames and Toronto Maple Leafs are mismatched on back-to-backs. The Flames enter on the second night while the Leafs play their first of two straight. The betting market is high on the Leafs but not high enough.

Toronto has been one of the top teams at five-on-five this season, recording the second-best expected goals-for percentage. The Leafs have the second-best scoring chance ratio and eighth-best high-danger chance ratio. However, their actual output is well below expected, as the Buds have scored only 26 goals at five-on-five compared to the 32.6 expected goals. Toronto has the fifth-worst shooting percentage, dragging its PDO down with it. The Leafs continue to outplay their opponents and are due for a breakout performance.

That could come against the Flames, who play on consecutive nights after starting primary Jacob Markstrom on the first night. That leaves Dan Vladar to man the crease against a potent Leafs’ lineup. Vladar has an 89.1% save percentage through two games this season, allowing three goals in each.

The Flames also don’t have the defensive structure to hoist Vladar up away from home. Calgary has been outplayed in five of seven road games this season, posting the ninth-worst expected goals-for percentage on the road.

Look for the Leafs to take advantage of a sluggish Flames squad. The advanced metrics support that Toronto should progress against one of the worst road teams in the league.

The Picks: Maple Leafs -176, Over 5.5 -115

All NHL predictions and picks are courtesy of SportsGrid.

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