Weekend Picks: Why Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs Will Cover Vs. Cowboys

Kansas City's defense has gotten much stronger of late


November 20, 2021

Last weekend’s football picks went 3-1 and I’m still convinced Virginia would’ve covered against Notre Dame if Cavaliers quarterback Brennan Armstrong played. I also felt it was worth a shot on the Hoos when the line crossed through 7, but that turned out to be a dud.

If you’re new around these parts, this is not a place where you’ll find a million betting picks. I isolate the ones I really, really like and roll with those. Nothing more, nothing less. Don’t expect to see any five-team parlays or “locks” on primetime games, either.

Let’s go to work.

Illinois Fighting Illini at Iowa Hawkeyes (-11.5, O/U 38)
Iowa -11.5

How is Illinois going to score? The Fighting Illini are a run-heavy team that’s hung around in some games because of their ability to control the line of scrimmage and muck things up. They also tried to do that against Wisconsin’s stout run defense this season and lost 24-0. Iowa’s unit is just as good and Kinnick Stadium is where opposing offenses go to die. The Hawkeyes will capitalize on short fields or turnovers and win this one by two touchdowns.

Oregon Ducks at Utah Utes (-3, O/U 58.5)
Oregon +3

I love betting Oregon as an underdog. The Ducks are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games catching points and it’s almost an auto bet at this point. Mario Cristobal has the best offensive and defensive lines in the conference and that’ll be the key to beating Utah. Oregon is pounding the rock with 226.5 yards per game on the ground and sure-handed senior quarterback Anthony Brown leads the best third-down offense the Ducks have had in a decade. Quack. Quack. Quack.

Cincinnati Bengals (-1, O/U 50) at Las Vegas Raiders
Over 50

This one has all the makings of a shootout. Quarterbacks that love to throw, solid playmakers down the field and secondaries that have shown some flaws over the last few weeks. We just need one of these teams to set the pace with an early touchdown and then we’re off. Las Vegas has hit the “Over” in three of four and Cincinnati has done it in three straight. And wind and weather won’t be an issue at all inside Allegiant Stadium. Fireworks, please.

Dallas Cowboys at Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5, O/U 56)
Chiefs -2.5

I think the Chiefs are about to get hot. Kansas City’s offensive line has gotten healthier, which gives superstar quarterback Patrick Mahomes more time to survey the field and hit his weapons in the open field. It only was a matter of time before that explosive offense figured it out. The other side of the ball doesn’t get talked about enough, either. Steve Spagnuolo’s defense has allowed just 38 points over the last three games and Melvin Ingram can be a difference maker.

Sam’s Picks
Iowa -11.5
Oregon +3

Chiefs -2.5

RECORD: (73-68, +11.5)

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