Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs, Odds, Predictions and Algorithm Picks from the SportsGrid Betting Model


Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs NFL Game Information

Buffalo Bills (11-6) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (12-5)

Date: Sunday, January 23, 2022

Time: 6:30 p.m. ET

Stadium: Arrowhead Stadium

TV Coverage: CBS

Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs Moneyline, Spread, Total and Odds

Moneyline: Bills +106| Chiefs -124

Spread: Bills +1.5 (-110) | Chiefs -1.5 (-110)

Total: 54 (-110)

Odds to Win NFL Championship: Bills +400 | Chiefs +350

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Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs Predictions and Picks

SG Betting Model Win Probability: Bills 43.1% | Chiefs 56.9%

SG Betting Model ML Star Rating: Chiefs – 2.5 stars

SG Betting Model Spread Star Rating – 0 stars

SG Betting Model Total Star Rating: Under – 3 stars

Check Out the SportsGrid Betting Model For Live Odds and Predictions on Updated Odds 

Note: The SportsGrid betting model adjusts for player news and injuries throughout the day. Be sure to check out the updated model projections as the news continues to break, leading up to game time.

Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs News and Notes

A marquee matchup for the weekend’s divisional round, the AFC East champion Buffalo Bills head to Arrowhead Stadium to square off against the AFC West champion Kansas City Chiefs in one of the more difficult venues for opposing teams.

Bills quarterback Josh Allen leads a Buffalo offense ranked as the 11th-best (per PFF ), leaning heavily on arm strength in a pass-heavy play-calling scheme (60%/40% pass-to-run play calling ratio). Currently, at 54-points, which is the highest total of the day on FanDuel Sportsbook, Allen should benefit from a distributed receiving corps in Stefon Diggs, Cole Beasley, Emmanuel Sanders, Gabriel Davis and tight end Dawson Knox, facing an improved, but still suspect Chiefs defense ranked 24th in DVOA (per Football Outsiders). A dual-threat option, Allen also is viable in the running game, seeing 26% of the workload in rushing, only behind Devin Singletary, who has seen a full allotment of rush attempts toward the end of the season. Averaging 11.1 rushing attempts per game and 4.63 yards per carry, expect Singletary to play an integral role in the Bills’ offense, facing a Chiefs defense ranked 20th in rush DVOA.

On the road this season, the Bills are 5-3 against the spread, posting a 5-3 record outright.

The high-powered Kansas City Chiefs offense, led by Patrick Mahomes, ranks as the seventh-best offense, operating as one of the more pass-friendly teams in the league, using a 63%/37% pass-to-run play calling ratio and an up-tempo 26.2 second per snap pace (per RotoViz). With a dynamic receiving corps highlighted by Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce, Mahomes should find success in moving the ball down the field, despite facing the top-ranked Bills’ defense, who are first in DVOA. Running back Jerick McKinnon should see split time with Clyde Edwards-Helaire, who returns to action after missing time because of a shoulder injury. Expected to see a full allotment in carries, Edwards-Helaire handles 45% of the share in carries, averaging 11.9 rushing attempts per game and 4.34 yards per carry.

At home this season, the Chiefs are 4-5 against the spread, posting a 7-2 record outright.

All NFL predictions and picks are courtesy of SportsGrid.

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