Cincinnati Bengals vs. Kansas City Chiefs, Odds, Predictions and Algorithm Picks from the SportsGrid Betting Model
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Kansas City Chiefs NFL Game Information
Buffalo Bills (10-7) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (12-5)
Date: Sunday, January 30, 2022
Time: 3:00 p.m. ET
Stadium: Arrowhead Stadium
TV Coverage: CBS
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Kansas City Chiefs Moneyline, Spread, Total and Odds
Moneyline: Bengals +285| Chiefs -355
Spread: Bengals +7.5 (-118) | Chiefs -7.5 (-104)
Total: 54.5 (-110)
Odds to Win NFL Championship: Bengals +850 | Chiefs +125
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Cincinnati Bengals vs. Kansas City Chiefs Predictions and Picks
SG Betting Model Win Probability: Bengals 19.7% | Chiefs 80.3%
SG Betting Model ML Star Rating: Chiefs – 5 stars
SG Betting Model Spread Star Rating – Chiefs (-7.5) 4 stars
SG Betting Model Total Star Rating: Under – 4 stars
Check Out the SportsGrid Betting Model For Live Odds and Predictions on Updated Odds
Note: The SportsGrid betting model adjusts for player news and injuries throughout the day. Be sure to check out the updated model projections as the news continues to break, leading up to game time.
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Kansas City Chiefs News and Notes
The AFC Conference comes down to the AFC North Champion Cincinnati Bengals and the AFC West Champion Kansas City Chiefs, who look to return to the Super Bowl for the third consecutive year.
Cincinnati ranked as the ninth-best offense (per PFF), heads Arrowhead Stadium, in a difficult matchup against a Chiefs defense that has improved throughout the season, ranked 24th in DVOA (per Football Outsiders). The Bengals will need to rely on the arm of second-year quarterback Joe Burrow to move the offense down the field, using a slightly skewed 59%/41% pass-to-run play calling ratio (per RotoViz). As the fourth-slowest team in the league, running a play every 28.5 seconds, the Bengals should increase their play-calling cadence to match the lightning-fast pace of the Chiefs, who run a play every 26.8 seconds. As 7.5-point road underdogs on FanDuel Sportsbook, look for Burrow to use his primary weapon in Ja’Marr Chase, who leads the Bengals’ receiving corps with a 24% target share, averaging 7.5 targets per game and 18 yards per reception, which should set up an ideal matchup against a Chiefs’ secondary that has struggled at times.
On the road this season, the Bengals are 6-2 against the spread, posting a 5-3 record outright.
Led by a dynamic quarterback in Patrick Mahomes, the Kansas City Chiefs look to return to the Super Bowl for the third-straight year. Using a 63% 37% pass-to-run play calling ratio, the Chiefs are one of the more pass-heavy teams in the league, facing a weak Bengals pass defense, ranked 24th in pass DVOA. The sixth-rank Chiefs offense relies heavily on wide receiver Tyreek Hill and tight end Travis Kelce for their big-play upside, collectively responsible for 46% of the Chiefs’ target share. Look for Hill, who averages 9.4 targets and 11.2 yards per reception, to be the first look for Mahomes. On the ground, Jerick McKinnon has had breakout performances as of late, averaging 11 rushing attempts and 6.5 targets per game as a starter and could see more opportunity if the Chiefs run away with the game.
At home, the Chiefs are 4-5 against the spread, posting a 7-2 record outright.
All NFL predictions and picks are courtesy of SportsGrid.
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