Super Bowl LVI Bets: Best Wagers for Sunday’s Bengals-Rams Showdown
First quarter Unders aren't fun, but they're profitable
Last year’s Super Bowl bets went 3-0-1 and I’m hoping we’re that successful this weekend.
If you’re new around these parts, this is not a place where you’ll find a million betting picks. I isolate the ones I really, really like and roll with those. Nothing more, nothing less. Don’t expect to see any five-team parlays or “locks” on primetime games, either.
Let’s go to work.
Here are my five favorite prop bets for Super Bowl LVI:
1Q Under 9.5 -110
1H Under 23.5 +105
I’ve made these bets almost blindly over the last decade. In the last 10 Super Bowls, the first quarter “Under” is 6-1-3 and the first half “Under” is 7-3. You can make some serious moves with a 13-4-3 record over a 20-game sample size. Offenses frequently battle nerves, jitters, crowd noise and, oh yeah — it takes a little time for rhythm to build after two weeks without having to execute in a real game.
Longest field goal Over 47.5 yards
Evan McPherson and Matt Gay both have big legs. McPherson’s season-long is 58 yards and Gay’s is a little shorter at 55. They both kick for coaches — Sean McVay and Zac Taylor — that hate leaving points on the field. If it’s fourth and 3 at the 33, odds are good that each guy will send out his three-point weapon and let him do his job. Also, we saw made goals from 49, 51 and 52 yards in last year’s Super Bowl. We should get at least one attempt (indoors at SoFi Stadium) from 48.
Rams have more possession -125
In three playoff games, the LA Rams have outpossessed their opponents 36-24 (minutes), 35-25 and 36-24. Basic mathematics tell you they’ve had the rock for nearly 60% of the time. And that implied probability translates into betting odds of about -150. So of course I’m going to lay -125 when the true number should be -125 or higher. The Rams offense has more weapons and their defensive front should force shorter-timed drives for the Bengals.
Game tied at halftime +1000
This is my favorite longshot wager. I used to love betting the safety at 14-to-1 or so about 10 years ago, but then there was a wave of safeties and bookmakers were forced to overadjust. The relative value on a safety is long gone as you’re lucky to find +700 on Rams-Bengals this year. That said, I still feel like there’s enough of an edge on the halftime tie. It’s happened in three of the last 17 Super Bowls (18%) and I’m betting on Super Bowl LVI being all square at the break. 13-13 here we come.
Sam’s Picks
1Q Under 9.5 -110
1Q Under 23.5 +105
Longest field goal Over 47.5 yards -110
Rams have more possession -125
Game tied at halftime +1000
RECORD: (93-86, +11.8)
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