If Boston Celtics big fella Al Horford was a stock, he would currently be at his highest point.
Horford turned back the clock Monday night with a dominant 30-point performance in Game 4 against the Milwaukee Bucks, highlighted by a rim-rocking dunk in the fourth quarter that sent Giannis Antetokounmpo spilling to the hardwood floor.
I think I’ve watched the video 100 times.
Thing is, when a role player — Horford averaged 10.2 points per game in the regular season — has a superstar performance on the national stage, bettors have to pay a premium to ride said player in the following game(s). That’s the way this racket works.
Horford’s point prop was 10.5 in Game 1 and it’s noticeably higher for Game 5 on Wednesday night.
Horford’s “Over” market for points:
Caesars: O13.5 -130 ($130 wins $100)
DraftKings: O13.5 -130
PointsBet: O13.5 -131
BetMGM O13.5 -135
BetRivers O14.5 -105
FanDuel O14.5 +100 ($100 wins $100)
“I would run his point prop up to 17.5,” one Las Vegas bookmaker joked to NESN. “It’s paramount that you weigh the public perception. If a guy that hasn’t scored 30 points all season suddenly scores 30 in the playoffs, you have to make a strong adjustment. People tend to react to what they’ve last seen.”
A four-point hike on a player prop might not sound like a lot, but it is when you consider it’s on a guy who’s averaging 10.5 shots per game this postseason and doesn’t get to the foul line (10 free throws in eight games). Also, Horford scored 12 and 11 points, respectively, in Games 1 and 2 at TD Garden, and now you need at least 14 to cash an “Over” ticket. Every point matters.
Maybe Al Horford took a drink from the fountain of youth. Maybe he solved the Bucks’ defensive puzzle. And maybe he’ll continue to be an offensive aggressor and shot 79 percent from the floor again.
Just know that you’ll be paying a premium to bet his “Over” the rest of this series.
Al Horford “Under” 14.5 points -115
RECORD: (112-107, +32.6)