Dallas Cowboys — CeeDee Lamb over 1,175.5 receiving yards (-125)
Have ya looked at the Cowboys’ depth chart recently? The biggest worry is how often Lamb gets double-teamed or schemed out of plays by the defense, but it’s still worth the juice because what else is Dallas going to do?
New York Giants — Kayvon Thibodeaux to win Defensive Rookie of the Year (+550)
Pretty simple one. A lot of people thought he was the best college prospect, and he’s got the narrative boost of playing in the biggest market.
Philadelphia Eagles — To win NFC East (+160)
It’s an increasingly square pick — BetMGM already felt obligated to move Philly’s win total from 8.5 to 9.5 with juice on the over — but it’s with good reason. The offense is especially loaded and the Eagles have one of the weakest projected schedules based on win totals.
Washington Commanders — Exact wins: 7 (+550)
The Commanders just feel like a meh, run-of-the-mill seven-win team, and yeah, we need to hit this exactly, but it’s far more tempting than just going “under” eight wins.
Chicago Bears — Justin Fields over 525.5 rushing yards (-120)
Fields is going to be running for his life behind arguably the worst offensive line in the league. Gotta think he racks up the yards, at least until he gets hurt.
Detroit Lions — Under 6.5 wins (+105)
The Lions’ buzz doesn’t make a ton of sense, especially considering they have to play Green Bay and Minnesota twice, as well as the Eagles, Cowboys, Dolphins and Bills. Did they get rid of Jared Goff or something?
Green Bay Packers — Rashan Gary to win Defensive Player of the Year (+3000)
It’s a loaded defense, especially in the secondary, which actually benefits Gary who should add to his 9.5 sacks from last season thanks to the coverage. There are some very positive vibes coming from Gary right now, which makes sense given how he flashed as a game-wrecker last season.
Minnesota Vikings — Kirk Cousins passing yards leader (+1800)
If it all breaks right for the Vikings, and they’re as good as a lot of people think they will be in Kevin O’Connell’s first season, then Cousins should have a career year. This good? Maybe not, but it’s worth a small gamble given the payout.
Atlanta Falcons — Kyle Pitts to win Offensive Player of the Year (+10000)
So, a tight end has never won the award, but that fits the narrative that there’s never been another tight end like Pitts, who is getting plenty of buzz entering the season. It’s an obvious long shot but you try coming up with a Falcons bet.
Carolina Panthers — Christian McCaffrey to win Comeback Player of the Year (+750)
Betting on McCaffrey’s health is dicey given he’s only played 10 games the last two seasons combined. But in seven games a year ago, he averaged 5.8 yards per touch, equaling his career mark. If he stays on the field, he should cruise to this one.
New Orleans Saints — To win NFC South (+300)
A complete fade of the Bucs, who haven’t exactly had a focused offseason or camp. It sounds like Alvin Kamara will avoid suspension, too, so there might be some value here in the Saints.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Under 11.5 wins (-130)
Are we sure Tom Brady is even going to play the entire season? Even if he does, there’s a lot of pressure on an aging group of skill players with an offensive line that’s already banged up.
Arizona Cardinals — Alternate win total: under 7.5 wins (+165)
They just kind of feel like a 7-10 team. DeAndre Hopkins is suspended, and the jury’s still out about just how consistent both Kyler Murray and Kliff Kingsbury can be. Throw in some early injury issues, too, and it might be a bridge year in the desert.
Los Angeles Rams — To miss the playoffs (+200)
Obviously, a lot went right for the Rams last season en route to a Super Bowl win. They threaded the needle in a way no team ever has, but the lingering Matthew Stafford arm issue is a reminder of just how fragile this thing is for LA. They don’t have a ton of depth, so even slight regression could send this thing spiraling.
San Francisco 49ers — Kyle Shanahan to win Coach of the Year (+2000)
It’s all set up for him. If the Rams do fall off, and Trey Lance — Shanahan’s hand-picked guy — contends for an MVP, and San Francisco wins the division, Shanahan will get the deserved attention.
Seattle Seahawks — Lowest-scoring team (+750)
The quarterback competition pits Geno Smith against Drew Lock, which is just sad, and in an NFL dominated by the passing game, the Seahawks want to run the ball. Could be an easy season for the scoreboard operator up there.