NFL QB-Coach Power Rankings: Breaking Down Major Key To Betting
It's hard to win the Super Bowl without having both
The wishlist for building a Super Bowl contender in the NFL isn’t really that complicated: Typically, the teams with the best quarterbacks and best coaches contend for championships.
There’s not a more important position in sports than starting quarterback. And quite frankly, you could make the case for NFL head coach to be right behind the signal-caller on that imaginary list.
As such, oddsmakers and sportsbooks build betting lines and futures odds with that in mind. While that information is baked into the odds, it can also be a good deciding factor when it comes to handicapping games — especially early in the season when other information is hard to come by.
With that in mind, we tried to power-rank all 32 quarterback-head coach combos ahead of the 2022 season:
1. Kansas City Chiefs (Patrick Mahomes, Andy Reid)
Both might be the best in the league at what they do. Next.
2. Green Bay Packers (Aaron Rodgers, Matt Lafleur)
The concerns about whether they could work well together seem like forever ago.
3. Buffalo Bills (Josh Allen, Sean McDermott)
McDermott’s defensive-minded, so maybe there isn’t as much collaboration, but the sum of the parts is damn high as both have ascended to near the top of their respective ranks.
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Tom Brady, Todd Bowles)
It feels kind of high, but Brady essentially has a football computer for a brain and has the intangibles of a head coach already. Bowles, meanwhile, should have everything else ready to go in his return to head coaching — and he might be better than Bruce Arians.
5. Los Angeles Rams (Matthew Stafford, Sean McVay)
They won the Super Bowl last year, so that seems pretty important. We always wondered what Stafford could do with an elite head coach, and McVay might be the NFL’s best at this point.
6. Baltimore Ravens (Lamar Jackson, John Harbaugh)
They clearly believe in each other and both should be motivated (perhaps for different reasons) to prove an injury-riddled 2021 was a fluke.
7. Los Angeles Chargers (Justin Herbert, Brandon Staley)
Staley took heat for aggressive decision-making last season, but if those coin-flip decisions fall his way in 2022, the Chargers — with Herbert, the MVP favorite — will contend for a Super Bowl.
8. Cincinnati Bengals (Joe Burrow, Zac Taylor)
They’re both young and have been through a lot already, including a Super Bowl loss. In a ranking of either, though, Burrow would probably be slightly higher and Taylor slightly lower.
9. Dallas Cowboys (Dak Prescott, Mike McCarthy)
These guys are weirdly similar. They both have pretty high ceilings and some impressive accomplishments but often leave you wanting more.
10. Tennessee Titans (Ryan Tannehill, Mike Vrabel)
Vrabel’s defensive-minded, sure, but Tannehill’s career renaissance in Nashville — with multiple offensive coordinators — indicates something about the partnership works.
11. Indianapolis Colts (Matt Ryan, Frank Reich)
They’re a fascinating team to watch in 2022, as Ryan is the sort of QB who can take advantage of a plethora of weapons as he did in Atlanta. Reich, meanwhile, has been one of the best ATS coaches since being hired.
12. Denver Broncos (Russell Wilson, Nathaniel Hackett)
It won’t be surprising if the season ends and this ranking looks real bad — either way. If Wilson is great again and Hackett was more responsible in Green Bay than we all realized, this team will be one of the NFL’s best. The alternative, though, could be quite frustrating for Denver fans.
13. New England Patriots (Mac Jones, Bill Belichick)
It’s a massive season for Belichick who largely is betting on himself by hiring a couple of inexperienced buddies to oversee the offense in a crucial second season for Jones. He’s the GOAT, so it could work, but a Cleveland-level crash and burn can’t be ruled out, either.
14. San Francisco 49ers (Trey Lance, Kyle Shanahan)
A controversially low ranking, perhaps, but we’re OK being a little bearish on Lance until we see a little bit more. There’s enough talent there to justify the MVP hype, though.
15. Las Vegas Raiders (Derek Carr, Josh McDaniels)
Similar to Denver, there’s plenty of volatility here, but if it goes as well as it did in the preseason, the Raiders could not only be a cover machine but sneak up on some teams in a loaded AFC West.
16. Philadelphia Eagles (Jalen Hurts, Nick Sirianni)
Hurts is super-talented, and Sirianni is the right kind of crazy. The Eagles are entertaining if nothing else.
17. Minnesota Vikings (Kirk Cousins, Kevin O’Connell)
Similar to Denver, this is another duo that could be way overrated or way underrated. Given the number of weapons in Minnesota, though, an offensive-minded coach like O’Connell should lead to immediate improvement.
18. Arizona Cardinals (Kyler Murray, Kliff Kingsbury)
As long as they can avoid good teams in late-season games, the Cardinals are a great bet!
19. New Orleans Saints (Jameis Winston, Dennis Allen)
Winston with Sean Payton would be much higher; Allen seems to be keeping a lot of things the same, but based on Winston’s volatility alone, betting the Saints will be a roller coaster.
20. Cleveland Browns (Jacoby Brissett, Kevin Stefanski)
The Browns might be a profitable early-season team, as it doesn’t feel like there’s a ton of confidence or momentum with Deshaun Watson suspended until December. But Brissett is capable, Stefanski seems good, and the rest of the roster is quite talented.
21. Pittsburgh Steelers (Mitch Trubisky, Mike Tomlin)
That Pittsburgh can still rank this high without a clear QB plan is a testament to Tomlin, whose teams rank 11th in cover percentage since he was hired.
22. Jacksonville Jaguars (Trevor Lawrence, Doug Pederson)
The best thing you can say about Pederson is he’s not Urban Meyer, and that’s saying something considering he beat Belichick in a Super Bowl. The Jags are building, but it might still be a bit to get on board.
23. Seattle Seahawks (Geno Smith, Pete Carroll)
Carroll has had a wonderful coaching career, but has the game past him by? The run-heavy philosophy is even riskier with Smith (or Drew Lock) driving the bus.
24. New York Jets (Zach Wilson, Robert Saleh)
The Jets are beginning to feel a little snakebitten with all the injuries, including to Wilson. Saleh gets them to play hard, but the Jets still went 6-11 ATS last season.
25. Chicago Bears (Justin Fields, Matt Eberflus)
Hiring a mediocre defensive coordinator to coach a team with a talented young quarterback who doesn’t have an offensive line or any weapons feels … bad.
26. Washington Commanders (Carson Wentz, Ron Rivera)
No disrespect to Rivera, whose resume can’t be questioned, but everything about this arrangement feels “meh.” This guy gets what we’re saying.
27. New York Giants (Daniel Jones, Brian Daboll)
This feels like a very short-term marriage unless Jones completely gets his act together. Otherwise, Daboll should get a fresh start on his fresh start in 2023.
29. Carolina Panthers (Baker Mayfield, Matt Rhule)
Only half-joking here, but given their collegiate accomplishments, the Panthers should just pretend they’re in the Big 12 or something.
30. Houston Texans (Davis Mills, Lovie Smith)
The Texans went for stability and professionalism with the Smith hire, but Mills remains a question mark.
31. Atlanta Falcons (Marcus Mariota, Arthur Smith)
There might not be a less remarkable team than the Falcons in 2022, though the duo does have experience working together in Tennessee.
32. Detroit Lions (Jared Goff, Dan Campbell)
Campbell is a delight, and Goff is a former No. 1 pick, but it’s also the Lions, so …
