Are Bookmakers Buying Into Bailey Zappe, Patriots QB Controversy?
The Rookie of the Year competition is wide open
Bailey Zappe has been extremely efficient in his first two starts, and it looks like bookmakers are buying into "Zappe Fever."
Patriots fans certainly are after seeing the New England rookie post solid numbers as Mac Jones continues to nurse a high ankle sprain. In his second career start, the fourth-round rookie went 24-of-34, throwing for 309 yards, along with two touchdowns.
It's a small sample size, but Zappe has been impressive in his limited run. He is No. 1 in completion percentage over expectation on early downs, and he is fifth in expected points added behind Josh Allen, Tua Tagovailoa, Patrick Mahomes and Jimmy Garoppolo. Mac Jones ranks 25th and 21st, respectively, in those efficiency statistics.
While Bill Belichick and Patriots coaches have played down the idea of a quarterback controversy, they haven't flat out denied there isn't one. It is Bill Belichick, so there is no telling what the motives are behind it, if there are any.
But pundits and fans around the league are all in on Zappe and his prospects as a starter, and bookmakers are as well.
His Rookie of the Year odds on DraftKings Sportsbook have jumped from 22-to-1, back when he got his first start against the Detroit Lions in Week 5, to 16-to-1 after his Week 6 start against the Cleveland Browns. This tied for eighth-shortest odds along with New York Giants wide receiver Wan'Dale Robinson. Patriots wide receiver Tyquan Thornton has the 10th shortest-odds at 25-to-1.
A trio of running backs are the favorites heading into Week 7. New York Jets' Breece Hall (+250), Houston Texans' Dameon Pierce (+500) and Seattle Seahawks' Kenneth Walker III (+750) lead the way, but there is a case to be made for the field.
The Jets are 4-2 after six weeks, but there is no reason to believe their run of success, especially one seen against the Green Bay Packers can be sustained. The Texans are still a bad team. Walker has a more compelling case, but Geno Smith has largely taken headlines.
As for other contenders, Chris Olave (+1000) has missed a few games for the New Orleans Saints, while other skill players have seen inconsistent work. The only other quarterback in line for Rookie of the Year is Pittsburgh Steelers signal-caller Kenny Pickett, who's greatest skill seen so far has been his ability to scrap with defensive lineman.
Jones continues to work his way back, but if Zappe can take the job from the second-year QB and continue his efficient run of play, he's worth a shot at 16-to-1. A $100 bet on the rookie quarterback pays out $1,700.
