Did Alabama Upset Improve SEC’s College Football Playoff Odds?
Is the SEC guaranteed two playoff teams now?
Somehow, someway, the SEC always seems to come out on top. At least it looks like that will be the case this season, even after Alabama’s upset loss to Tennessee in Week 7.
Tennessee pulled off one of the best wins in the program’s recent history, knocking off No. 3 ranked Alabama two weeks ago at Neyland Stadium in a thriller. Despite begging for money afterward, the Volunteers have put the College Football Playoff fate of the SEC and the entire country into their own hands. How? Let’s first take a look at the latest AP Poll.
AP Poll – Week 8
1. Georgia (7-0)
2. Ohio State (6-0)
3. Tennessee (6-0)
4. Michigan (7-0)
5. Clemson (7-0)
6. Alabama (6-1)
7. Ole Miss (7-0)
8. TCU (6-0)
9. UCLA (6-0)
10. Oregon (7-1)
As you can see, the SEC is already sitting pretty with four teams (Georgia, Tennessee, Alabama and Ole Miss) in the current top 10 – the College Football Playoff committee also released their first rankings Tuesday. The Big Ten (Ohio State, Michigan) and Pac-12 (UCLA, Oregon) each only have two in the AP ranking, while the ACC (Clemson) and Big-12 (TCU) are holding out hope they can send just one team to the playoff. With a clear advantage midway through the season, let’s take a look at each of the scenarios that could see the SEC send one, two or even three teams to the postseason.
One Team
Things would have to go horrendously for a few teams for the SEC to only have one representative in the college football playoff. Essentially, Georgia would need to win out, destroying Tennessee along the way, before taking down Alabama in the title game. The Crimson Tide, in turn, would need to knock off Ole Miss on their way to Atlanta. Could that exact scenario happen? Sure, but even then, Tennessee would have a case over one of the Big Ten teams currently in the top 10, as they play each other late in the season, while the only other options to place over them would be UCLA and TCU should they both finish undefeated.
Two Teams
Take your pick here. There’s the scenario laid out above, but with a minor tweak to the finish of the Georgia-Tennessee game. Or, Alabama could beat an undefeated Tennessee or Georgia team, which would likely send both teams to the playoff. If Ole Miss stays undefeated and matches up with one of those two teams, they would both likely find themselves in the playoff. It’s easy money from this point on.
Three Teams
Another long-shot here, but let’s have fun. What if four teams finish with one loss? Alabama would need to beat Ole Miss, then defeat the winner of Tennessee-Georgia in the SEC Championship. All of those games would need to be close, and Clemson, TCU and UCLA would need to drop a game as well, but it’s currently on the table that Alabama, Georgia and Tennessee represent the SEC in the College Football Playoff alongside the winner of Ohio State-Michigan.
As things currently stand, Georgia (+180), Alabama (+450) and Tennessee (+1600) are within the top five in terms of odds to win the National Championship at DraftKings Sportsbook.
