The definition of parity in sports is when participating teams have roughly equivalent levels of talent and/or production. A prime example: the 2022 NFL season.
The Falcons are on top of the NFC South, the Seahawks are leaders of the NFC West, and the Jets are currently the second-best team in the AFC East. If you said that would be the case by Week 8, no you didn?t. With that said, betting the league week to week can be especially tough this season. Here?s where I found an edge in a few games for the rest of the slate, in addition to two teaser legs I gave out here.
(-1.5) Las Vegas Raiders at New Orleans Saints, 1 p.m. ET
Josh Jacobs over 85.5 rushing yards -115
Despite the offseason addition of Davante Adams to the roster, the Raiders? fourth-season running back is the one stealing the limelight. After the first three weeks of respectable production, Jacobs has taken off. He?s averaging 23 carries for almost 150 rush yards in his last three games, scoring at least one touchdown in each and six touchdowns total. Sunday?s a great matchup for Jacobs too. The Saints run defense has given up an average of 121 yards in their last 3 games, allowing almost 22 attempts and just over 100 yards a game through the first seven weeks. Jacobs has had 143 yards or more in his last three games while going over 21 attempts just once, so he should have no problem here. Plus, he has some extra incentive. Jacobs will become the fifth player in NFL history with at least 150 scrimmage yards and a rushing TD in four straight games. Don?t overthink it, take the over.
Green Bay Packers at (-10.5) Buffalo Bills, 8:20 p.m.
Aaron Rodgers over 35.5 pass attempts +100
Things aren?t looking great in Green Bay. Whether you think it?s a Rodgers problem or a weapon problem, or a mix of both, it doesn?t matter much. They can be good throws, bad throws, caught or not — we just need attempts. His passing yard prop has been bet up to 238.5, which means both the bookmakers and market believe he will be throwing more than he has for the majority of the first seven weeks, despite injuries to his wideouts. Plus, there?s a possibility that receiver Sammy Watkins provides a spark, with the eight-year veteran returning to Buffalo for the first time since leaving his former team more than five years ago. It?s by no means an easy matchup, with Buffalo ranking top five in pass DVOA. However, Sean McDermott’s squad is allowing just over 34 pass attempts a game and in a desperate push to keep this game close, Rodgers will have to throw the ball as much as possible. Buffalo is a 10.5-point favorite, which means the Packers are likely to be playing from behind throughout the game. This is the first time in his career that Rodgers is a double-digit underdog. Expect him to come out hot to try and quiet the doubters.
(-3.5) Miami Dolphins at Detroit Lions, 1 p.m.
Tyreek Hill over 6.5 catches -145
This one is pretty simple. Hill leads all players in receiving targets, yards, and catches. He is averaging over eight catches on 11 targets a game and is now facing the Detroit Lions who have the second-worst pass DVOA. Miami is targeting their receivers at the highest clip of any team in the league ? 67.5%. Despite his extremely talented counterpart, Hill has been targeted 24 more times than Jaylen Waddle and we should see a similar target domination here. When it comes to game script ? while Miami is a much better team than Detroit, the Phins are just 3.5-point road favorites. Bookmakers are telling you the game should be closer rather than a blowout, which means Tua will be looking to his number one target more often than not.
