It feels like just yesterday it was Labor Day, and we were grilling out, embracing summer’s last stand while also eagerly anticipating the start of the NFL season.
Yet, here we are, in Week 17 of the season, about ready to say goodbye to 2022 and ring in the new year. And with New Year’s Day falling on a Sunday, the Jan. 1 date typically reserved for the college bowl season suddenly belongs to the pros.
NESN.com’s Mike Cole and Ricky Doyle are certainly ready for the NFL playoffs to get here while getting back to normal following the hectic holiday season. The duo discussed all of that and everything in between while making their best bets for Week 17 on this week’s episode of “The Spread,” NESN’s football picks podcast.
Give it a listen and subscribe below.
As always, Mike and Ricky made full against-the-spread picks for each and every NFL game on the card this weekend.
But first, here’s how they fared last week.
And here are their full Week 17 ATS picks based on consensus betting lines from the NESNBets live odds page.
THURSDAY, DEC. 29
(-12.5) Dallas Cowboys at Tennessee Titans, 8:15 p.m. ET
Mike: Cowboys. Doing these picks later in the week, we’re on the worst part of this line for a game that opened Dallas -3! I guess I’d take the Cowboys all the way up to 14, though, considering this is essentially a preseason game for Tennessee ahead of next week’s de facto AFC South title game.
Ricky: Cowboys. Who’s even playing for Tennessee this week?
SUNDAY, JAN. 1
Arizona Cardinals at (-3.5) Atlanta Falcons, 1 p.m.
Mike: Cardinals. Arizona should want to send out J.J. Watt on a high note, and the future Hall of Famer should have his way with this Atlanta offensive line.
Ricky: Falcons. Been battling the flu the past few days. So, forgive me for not devoting too much brainpower to this slobberknocker.
Chicago Bears at (-6) Detroit Lions, 1 p.m.
Mike: Bears. There’s probably more to this matchup than “the Bears love to run the ball, and the Lions just allowed 320 rushing yards,” but the Bears love to run the ball, and the Lions just allowed 320 rushing yards.
Ricky: Lions. Justin Fields injured his non-throwing shoulder in Week 11. In the four games since (with Fields starting three), Chicago’s offense ranks 27th in EPA/play and 29th in success rate.
(-4.5) Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans, 1 p.m.
Mike: Texans. In its last three games, Houston took the Cowboys to the wire, lost to the Chiefs in overtime and beat the Titans. The Texans are competing, to say the least, and should hang tough against a Jaguars team that doesn’t really need this game.
Ricky: Jaguars. Those three close calls do nothing for me. The Cowboys were primed for a letdown after hanging 54 on the Colts, the Chiefs were playing their third straight road game and the Titans are a bad team without a quarterback. Jags roll.
Denver Broncos at (-12.5) Kansas City Chiefs, 1 p.m.
Mike: Chiefs. Kansas City could definitely win this game by a score of, like, 27-13, right? Good enough for me, I guess — regardless of who’s coaching Denver.
Ricky: Broncos. The Chiefs are 2-9 ATS this season after a SU win. They’re 2-5 ATS as favorites of more than six points. Thinking this is an opportunity to buy (very, very) low on the Broncos, who still had the NFL’s fourth-ranked defense in terms of DVOA before their Christmas Day blowout loss.
Miami Dolphins at (-3) New England Patriots, 1 p.m.
Mike: Dolphins. Given how Tua Tagovailoa has played the last four weeks, the 4.5-point adjustment for Teddy Bridgewater of the opening line is too much. And that’s before even considering the train wreck of an offense the Patriots feature.
Ricky: Dolphins. Not only does New England’s offense stink. I’m not really sold on the defense, either.
Indianapolis Colts at (-6) New York Giants, 1 p.m.
Mike: Giants. Nick Foles faced pressure on 14 of 36 dropbacks last week and was sacked seven times while completing two of seven passes for 14 yards with a pair of interceptions. The Giants have the NFL’s best pressure rate. Look out.
Ricky: Colts. Only Atlanta, Las Vegas and Chicago have a worse defensive DVOA than the Giants. So, maybe Indianapolis’ offense can get itself together for a week?
New Orleans Saints at (-5.5) Philadelphia Eagles, 1 p.m.
Mike: Eagles. I don’t think I’ve picked a single Saints game right all season, so congratulations to them on a fine Week 17 performance in Philly.
Ricky: Saints. The Eagles’ quarterback situation obviously makes this difficult. If Gardner Minshew starts, I’m fully expecting a heavy dose of reality that magnifies Jalen Hurts’ value to Philadelphia’s offense.
Carolina Panthers at (-3) Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 1 p.m.
Mike: Bucs. On one hand, we’ve all watched the Bucs this season. On the other hand, only getting three points on the road with Sam Darnold vs. Tom Brady isn’t worth it. And don’t discount that Jaycee Horn injury in the Carolina secondary.
Ricky: Bucs. Stakes raised: Darnold or Brady? Yeah, I’ll also play it safe.
Cleveland Browns at (-2.5) Washington Commanders, 1 p.m.
Mike: Commanders. First instinct was to take Washington, and Carson Wentz going against a Cleveland defense allowing 15 points per game over the last five weeks doesn’t inspire confidence. The Browns still struggle to stop the run, though, so Brian Robinson should get the ball 30 times and that should do it.
Ricky: Commanders. Cleveland’s offense hasn’t looked right yet with Deshaun Watson behind center. And the improvement might not come until next season at this rate.
(-9.5) San Francisco 49ers at Las Vegas Raiders, 4:05 p.m.
Mike: 49ers. The decision to bench Derek Carr certainly makes sense, but Jarrett Stidham gets a tough landing spot against the San Francisco defense. The bigger issue, though, might be the Vegas defense after losing both Chandler Jones and Denzel Perryman last week.
Ricky: 49ers. I know what Stidham is capable of — and I don’t mean that in a good way.
(-1.5) New York Jets at Seattle Seahawks, 4:05 p.m.
Mike: Jets. This has more to do with the New York defense than it does with Mike White returning. Injuries have turned the Seattle offense back into a pumpkin, and it’s not likely to look any better against the sixth-ranked defense by DVOA. Not to mention: Seattle’s defense has been gross all season.
Ricky: Jets. The Seahawks have the lowest-ranked PFF pass-blocking grade in the NFL over the last five weeks, with multiple backups crumbling in Week 16 against Kansas City. That’s a problem going up against the Jets’ defensive front.
Minnesota Vikings at (-3.5) Green Bay Packers, 4:25 p.m.
Mike: Vikings. Maybe the Packers win, but it’s hard to see how this isn’t a field-goal game. For starters, that’s all the Vikings do. But more important might be Green Bay’s injury situation, specifically Christian Watson. They’re just tough to trust in this spot.
Ricky: Vikings. That half-point is enough to suck me in. Field-goal game, it is.
Los Angeles Rams at (-6.5) Los Angeles Chargers, 4:25 p.m.
Mike: Rams. The Chargers don’t really have much to play for after clinching a playoff spot. On the other side, Sean McVay’s work with Baker Mayfield reminds us that he’s still an excellent coach, while Mayfield has all the motivation to put more good things on tape.
Ricky: Chargers. The Rams’ offensive line still has holes the Chargers’ pass rush can exploit. And if we’ve learned anything about Mayfield over the years, it’s that his peaks usually are followed by a few valleys, with this representing a classic letdown spot after last week’s dominance of the Broncos.
Pittsburgh Steelers at (-2.5) Baltimore Ravens, 8:20 p.m.
Mike: Steelers. Baltimore looks like it will be without Lamar Jackson again, as well as Calais Campbell and Marcus Peters on defense. In the Ravens’ last four games, the total points scored didn’t surpass 30 and three of four were decided by one score or less. A lot of reasons to just grab the points and move on.
Ricky: Steelers. Pittsburgh probably isn’t going to sneak into the playoffs. But damn, that team plays hard for Mike Tomlin — every single year.
MONDAY, JAN. 2
(-1.5) Buffalo Bills at Cincinnati Bengals, 8:30 p.m.
Mike: Bills. With such a short line, I’ll grab the Bills who I believe are the better team, especially considering Cincinnati’s mounting injuries and recent inconsistency that included an ugly half in both their Bucs and Patriots wins. That probably won’t fly here.
Ricky: Bills. La’el Collins’ ACL tear is a crushing blow to a Bengals offensive line that’s come a long way since the beginning of the season. His absence will be felt in this particular matchup.
