NFL Picks: Conference Title Best-Bet Parlay Banking On Bengals
We might also see an NFC title game repeat
There are just three NFL football games remaining in the 2022-23 season, meaning we are running out of opportunities to cash in with our picks.
And we have been doing just that recently with the NESNBets best-bet parlay. After a miraculous, season-saving cashout in Week 18, we officially have some momentum — just in time for the season to be over. There were some admittedly iffy moments in the divisional round, but a parlay of the unders in both Philly-New York and San Francisco-Dallas along with the Kansas City moneyline got home for a modest payout.
The finish line is very much in sight, and the opportunities for success are dwindling. Here is the best-bet parlay for the NFL conference championships with picks based on consensus betting lines from the NESNBets live odds page.
San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles UNDER 46.5
This is two years in a row the NFC Championship Game has featured two elite defenses. Last season, it was the Los Angeles Rams and their fifth-ranked defense by DVOA squeaking by the 49ers and their No. 7 defense. That went went under the total of 46, as LA won that game 20-17 on its way to winning the Super Bowl. It wouldn’t be surprising at all to see this game play out in similar fashion. The 49ers have the NFL’s best defense, highlighted by some all-world talent in the front seven. The Eagles have the NFL’s No. 6 defense by DVOA but have the definitive edge on the outside and are probably the deeper defense. There are also question marks about both offenses. Brock Purdy’s 49ers run has been sensational, but it hasn’t been flawless. He looked especially shaky last week against the Cowboys. Dallas, according to Warren Sharp, pressured Purdy on 45% of his dropbacks, and the 49ers quarterback completed just four of 12 passes for 55 yards under pressure. For the Eagles, it’s going to be hard for them to get the running game going against that stout Niners defense, and no team was better at limiting the big plays we saw from Philly last week than the 49ers. It certainly didn’t look like Jalen Hurts’ shoulder was bothering him against the Giants, but it’s not like he got hit very much, and he didn’t have to sling it much after an early lead. Add it all up, and this feels like it could be a tight, low-scoring battle.
Cincinnati Bengals MONEYLINE over Kansas City Chiefs (-102)
The line has been all over the place for the entire week given the uncertainty about Patrick Mahomes’ ankle injury. He looks healthy, and it sure sounds like the ankle thing has been overstated. The Chiefs, it seems got lucky, or Mahomes just has a ridiculous pain tolerance. Either way, the Chiefs sure feel like they’ll be closer to full strength than anticipated. Here’s the question: Will it even matter? The Bengals obviously are a tough matchup for the Chiefs. The Bengals haven’t lost to Kansas City in the Joe Burrow era, including this very game at Arrowhead just last year. The Bengals offense has its way with the Chiefs defense, scoring at least 27 points in each of the three meetings. The Bengals haven’t found much resistance recently, either, scoring at least 24 points in seven of their 10 games since November. That has coincided with pass-protection improvement. The Bengals allowed 29 sacks in the first eight games of the season and just 17 in the that 10-game stretch. The Chiefs also have problems covering running backs in the passing game, and few backs are better pass-catchers than Samaje Perine, who had a season-high six catches vs. KC in Week 13 and caught a TD pass in the title game last year. And then there’s the Cincinnati defense. Few coordinators make more of their parts than Lou Anarumo, who has flummoxed some of the NFL’s best quarterbacks over the last two seasons. If Mahomes is at all hobbled or can’t operate at the level we’re used to seeing, the red-hot Bengals will smell blood. The Bengals are exactly the sort of team that can go into Kansas City, not blink and come away winners. After all, we’ve already seen it happen.
Payout: 1 unit to win 2.64
To date: Up 14.83 units
