Super Bowl Best Bets: Wagers We Like For Chiefs-Eagles Showdown
What's your favorite Super Bowl bet?
You might have heard, but the Super Bowl is this weekend with the Philadelphia Eagles and Kansas City Chiefs set to do battle at State Farm Stadium in Arizona.
Obviously, those two teams have more at stake than just about anyone else, but fans across the country and world will be locked in, too, in hopes of seeing their bets cash.
The expectation is there will be a record amount of betting on the Super Bowl this year. Here at NESNBets, we’ll certainly be getting in on that fun, too, with a range of wagers.
But as we get closer to kickoff, here are some of the bets our staff likes the most:
Sam Panayotovich: 1H Under 24.5 total points (-118)
The rising game total makes this wager even stronger. Almost every American sportsbook is dealing the Over/Under at 51, which correlatingly made the first-half total higher, too. I saw some shops dealing 1H O/U 23.5 early last week and it was painted 24 across the board on Monday afternoon.
Now we get that precious hook. Common first-half scores like 14-10 and 17-7 now win instead of push and the importance of an extra half-point off a key number should never be underestimated in the betting market.
I love betting on games of this magnitude to start low and slow. Offenses tend to be a little rusty in the early going and nerves can certainly take center stage in the first few drives of a championship. And while America loves its offensive fireworks, I’ve found first-half “Unders” to be more profitable. Only four of the last 11 Super Bowls had more than 24 first-half points.
Travis Thomas: Patrick Mahomes SB LVII MVP (+125, DraftKings Sportsbook)
I understand all the love for the Eagles and that’s why they are the favorite in the game. I understand that if the Eagles win it’s likely because Jalen Hurts has a big game with his dual-threat ability, and that’s why he is the favorite to win the MVP. But my understanding doesn’t blind me to the value of betting on Andy Reid, Patrick Mahomes and the underdog Chiefs in this spot. Ultimately, I’m going to put my money on the proven commodity. I think Hurts is capable in this big spot, but I’ve never seen it. I know Mahomes is capable because I’ve seen him do it before.
Keagan Stiefel: Travis Kelce First Half Touchdown — Yes +230
Given the Eagles’ propensity to go on sustained offensive drives, I believe the Chiefs’ offensive strategy entering this game will be to strike quick. We’re talking a lot of up tempo and quick game, trying to keep Haason Reddick, Josh Sweat and the Philly pass rush out of it. Enter Travis Kelce, who absolutely feasts when KC plays fast. Philadelphia allowed four TDs to tight ends this season and Kelce will be the fifth.
Mike Cole: Patrick Mahomes OVER 25.5 completions (-135, DraftKings)
Mahomes is probably going to be under pressure from the ferocious Philly front, so he’s gonna have to get it out quick, and that should lead to shorter, more frequent completions. And to the surprise of no one, when the Chiefs need to win, it’s Mahomes whose number is called. He has 13 career playoff starts under his belt, and he has hit this over in eight of them, including both Super Bowls.
Jason Ounpraseuth: Eagles Over 1.5 fourth-down conversions (+190, DraftKings)
Nick Sirianni has been a very analytics-friendly head coach. Philadelphia was among the league leaders in fourth-down attempts, with the Jalen Hurts quarterback sneak being nearly unstoppable. With Patrick Mahomes on the other side of the field, it’s unlikely the Eagles would want to settle for field goals, so expect Philadelphia to go for it as often as possible to try to win the game.
Adam London: A.J. Brown Exact Receiving Yards: 80-89 yards (+800, DraftKings)
Brown only had 50 combined receiving yards in the Eagles’ last two wins, but that’s mostly because the pressure was completely taken off Philly’s aerial attack. The Birds throttled the New York Giants and the San Francisco 49ers, which allowed the NFC’s top-seeded team to sit on the football. Super Bowl LVII has the makings of a shootout, so Brown figures to be a greater point of emphasis in the playcalling. I don’t expect the first-year Eagle to put up game MVP-caliber numbers but within range of his per-game yardage average for the regular season (88).
Sean McGuire: Haason Reddick to record first sack (+290, DraftKings)
The Eagles pass rusher has 19 1/2 sacks in 20 games this season, including 3 1/2 in Philadelphia’s two postseason contests. His 16 in the regular season were tied for second-most in the NFL behind only Defensive Player of the Year Nick Bosa. Reddick is the favorite to do it first Sunday, and given Philadelphia’s strength on the offensive line, we’re banking on the Eagles to get to Patrick Mahomes more than the Chiefs can get to the dual-threat Jalen Hurts. With that in mind, Brandon Graham to do so first at 10-1 is rather enticing, too.
Ricky Doyle: Field goals head-to-head — Harrison Butker -0.5 vs. Jake Elliott (+145)
Let’s sprinkle some action on the kickers. Butker needs to convert more field goals than Elliott for this bet to cash, a scenario that’s likely and a wager that’s enticing based on the plus value offered. Elliott, the Eagles’ kicker for 18 games this season, only has one game with more than two field-goal attempts (five in Week 18 against the New York Giants). Butker, meanwhile, has five such performances for the Chiefs, despite only kicking in 15 contests. Add in the potential game script — KC ranks 30th in red-zone defense and Philly goes for it on fourth down at the fourth-highest clip in the NFL — and it feels like Butker will have more opportunities than Elliott to split the uprights.
