How To Smartly Bet On Athletics Amid Poor 2023 MLB Season

There’s no denying the Oakland Athletics have been downright awful to start the 2023 season.

They’re 5-18 with a minus-102 run differential — on pace for an abysmal total of 35 wins this season. If that is the case, they will make history for having the second-fewest wins all-time, behind only the 1899 Cleveland Spiders. The vacuum cleaner was invented in 1899. It’s been a while.

As bad as this Oakland team might be, I never suggest “blind betting” in any scenario. No matter how much a team is underperforming, it doesn’t mean you should automatically bet on whoever they’re facing. That’s not smart for long-term profitability. What you can do is use it as a starting point in your handicapping process. Instead of risking a lot to win a little on the heavily-favored opposing team, explore the following alternative markets:

Totals
With a 7.98 team ERA, it’s not hard to identify the glaring weakness on this team. That being said, we’re still seeing bookmakers set low totals for their games in certain spots. I’m not saying you’re going to “outsmart” oddsmakers, because they adjust all markets accordingly. However, you might find an edge going over on one of these lower totals if you think the opposing lineup will take care of business or if you find an advantage with Oakland’s lineup (see more on that in the pitcher and batting props section). If you don’t want to put your faith in Oakland’s lineup (I get it) you also could just bet the over on the opposing team’s total.

Runline
You won’t often find much value with -1.5 run lines here, with a few moving up to -2.5. If you do find a decent price though and find an edge with the opposing team’s starting pitcher, lineup and bullpen, then I would go full game runline to bring that moneyline juice down. If you don’t trust the bullpen, go for a first-five run line at -0.5. On the flip side, if you find an edge with Oakland, then of course, you should consider the +1.5 or +2.5, but keep in mind, Oakland sits in the bottom-five of the league when it comes to covering the runline.

Pitcher and batting props
Splits are important. While it is a small sample size, Oakland has found a lot more success against lefties this season. It’s actually in the top half of the league when it comes to on-base percentage, batting average, and surprisingly top-five in wRC+ (a more accurate measure of runs created). They’re more disciplined against lefties, too — their strikeout rate sitting at 22.1% versus 24.6% against righties. I would look out for the weaker opposing lefty starting pitchers to see if you can find value on the under strikeouts or over on Oakland hits and earned runs.

You would think positive regression is bound to happen with this team … but it’s unlikely, considering it’s expected to sell any of its reliable pieces to flip this team upside down by the Major League Baseball trade deadline. It also doesn’t help that MLB Pipeline ranks the A’s minor league system in the bottom third of the league — so you can’t expect much help coming up from their farm system either.