Let’s Forecast 2023 Patriots Season Using Las Vegas Point Spreads

New England is only favored three times


May 30, 2023

The New England Patriots don’t play a regular-season game until September 10, but one Las Vegas sportsbook is already dealing point spreads on all 17 tilts.

Hungry? Why wait?

Bookmakers at the Westgate SuperBook calibrated their power ratings for the upcoming NFL season and they’re ready to take your bets right now. I know what you’re thinking — why should I care about this in late May? Well, if you’re ahead of the curve on a team good or bad, you can pocket great numbers.

Let’s take Week 5 for example when the Patriots are 2.5-point home favorites against the New Orleans Saints. If the Patriots start 2-2 and the Saints stumble to 1-3, that line could easily cross through the “3” by the time we get to early October. Inversely, if the Pats are 4-9 when they host the world champion Kansas City Chiefs in Week 15, that line might be Chiefs -8 instead of the lookahead number, which is currently Chiefs -6.

And of course, these lines will look slightly different if New England goes out and acquires DeAndre Hopkins.

Let’s map out the 2023 Patriots season using lines from the SuperBook.

+5 vs. Eagles – Week 1 (L) 0-1
This is a talent mismatch. I’ll give Bill Belichick the benefit of the doubt a lot, but not here.

+2 vs. Dolphins – Week 2 (W) 1-1
Get Miami early because it’ll likely peak much later in the season.

+5.5 at Jets – Week 3 (L) 1-2
Aaron Rodgers shreds the Patriots’ secondary in the first meeting.

+5.5 at Cowboys – Week 4 (L) 1-3
Almost went with the upset here because of Mike McCarthy, but meh.

-2.5 vs. Saints – Week 5 (W) 2-3
Derek Carr stinks.

PK at Raiders – Week 6 (W) 3-3
Redemption for Jakobi Meyers’ touchdown pass to the wrong team.

+4.5 vs. Bills – Week 7 (L) 3-4
I would look to take the points, but Buffalo escapes.

+4.5 at Dolphins – Week 8 (L) 3-5
If Tua stays healthy, this is a win for the Fish.

-3.5 vs. Commanders – Week 9 (W) 4-5
Belichick against Sam Howell.

-3.5 vs. Colts – Week 10 (W) 5-5
Belichick against a rookie quarterback.

BYE – Week 11

+1.5 at Giants – Week 12 (W) 6-5
This game and the next one are coin flips …

+2 vs. Chargers – Week 13 (L) 6-6
… so let’s split the difference.

+1.5 at Steelers – Week 14 (L) 6-7
Kenny Pickett “outplays” Mac Jones in a 20-17 rock fight.

+6 vs. Chiefs – Week 15 (L) 6-8

+3 at Broncos – Week 16 (L) 6-9
High hopes for Denver this year with Sean Payton unleashing the offense.

+6.5 at Bills – Week 17 (L) 6-10
Don’t get cute.

+1 vs. Jets – Week 18 (W) 7-10
Why not? New York either has a playoff berth clinched or Rodgers is sleeping in a dark cave somewhere.

Thumbnail photo via Robert Deutsch/USA TODAY Sports Images

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