Bill Belichick Perfect Example Of Why Best Coaches Don’t Win Coach Of Year
It's important to know the narrative before placing a wager on Coach of the Year
The best coaches in the National Football League aren’t typically the ones who win Coach of the Year.
The award tends to be subjective and narrative-driven, in contrast to other NFL honors. Those typically go to the most deserving — NFL MVP now is viewed as a quarterback-driven award — regardless of whether or not the player held the honor recently.
The fact New England Patriots coach Bill Belichick has only won Coach of the Year three times (2010, 2007, 2003) depicts that better than anything. Kansas City Chiefs coach Andy Reid has only won the award once (2002), too.
Instead, it usually rewards the individual at the helm of the most-improved team — a team that exceeded expectations from one campaign to the next.
For example, Ravens coach John Harbaugh won Coach of the Year in 2019 after Baltimore won 14 games, 5 1/2 more games than it was projected to win. The same can be said about Los Angeles Rams coach Sean McVay, who won five games more than projected in 2017, and then-Panthers coach Ron Rivera, who won 6 1/2 more games than Carolina’s projected win total in 2015.
The winner of Coach of the Year also could be someone who helped their team overcome injury-related adversity, such as then-Arizona Cardinals coach Bruce Arians in 2014.
Recently, the award has been going to younger coaches in their first few seasons. Brian Daboll, the 2022 winner, claimed it after his first season with the New York Giants. Cleveland Browns coach Kevin Stefanski (2020), then-Chicago Bears coach Matt Nagy (2018) and McVay (2017) also won the award in their debut campaigns.
With that said, it should come as no surprise five of the newer coaches — we’ve deemed that to be entering Year 3 or less — have the shortest prices to win on FanDuel Sportsbook. (Disclaimer: Sean Payton isn’t a new coach, but is in his first year with the Denver Broncos.)
Dan Campbell +950
Sean Payton +1200
Arthur Smith +1400
Matt Eberflus +1600
Robert Saleh +1600
Matt Lafleur +1600
Pete Caroll +2000
Mike Tomlin +2000
Mike McDaniel +2000
Dennis Allen +2000
Doug Pederson +2000
Kevin Stefanski +2500
Brandon Staley +2500
DeMeco Ryans +2500
Nick Sirianni +2500
Shane Steichen +2500
Frank Reich +2500
In the past, sportsbooks listed the best coaches on the top betting lines, as pointed out by Action Network. However, those same sportsbooks (and bettors, too) have seen the trends. Now, coaches of teams with the best opportunity to improve are atop the board. This is depicted with Campbell, Payton and Saleh, to name a few.
So while the previous favorites were rarely the ones who won Coach of the Year — every winner from 2015 to 2021 was north of 20-1, per Action Network — that has since changed. Daboll had the shortest odds (14-1) of any coach entering 2022.
As it relates to Belichick, specifically, it’s probably best to stay away from his 30-1 number. He is one of 10 coaches at 30-1.
The reasoning? Well, in addition to the aforementioned information, any drastic improvements the Patriots make in 2023 might be attributed to new offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien. Should O’Brien change to the complexion of the offense and New England’s unit succeed, Belichick probably won’t get much credit for it given how the unity looked in 2022.
