Christian McCaffrey has turned into just about a sure thing on the anytime touchdown market.
The San Francisco 49ers star running back has two touchdowns in the first two games of the season, crossing the goal line against both the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 1 and Los Angeles Rams in Week 2. It means McCaffrey now has scored in 11 consecutive games for the Niners, including in each of San Francisco’s three postseason clashes.
Since being acquired by Kyle Shanahan and the 49ers in mid-October, McCaffrey has scored 13 touchdowns in 14 games (one passing).
It’s caused oddsmakers not only to react, but try to make the prop far less enticing for bettors.
McCaffrey on Wednesday morning was listed at -280 to score a touchdown against the New York Giants on “Thursday Night Football.” The dual-threat star was listed at -320 on FanDuel on Tuesday night. Should McCaffrey reach back to -320 ahead of kickoff, it would be the shortest odds of an anytime touchdown scorer in the past three seasons, per Action Network.
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McCaffrey was listed at -130 entering Week 1 against the Steelers before being listed at -280 on FanDuel before Week 2 against the 49ers. He represented one of the most popular prop bets at Fanatics Sportsbook entering the season opener, and then was not among the five most popular on BetMGM the week after.
Oddsmakers are smart to make bettors second guess the value before placing a wager. He’s been a money-maker for the betting public, after all.
From Week 7 to Week 18 of the 2022 season, McCaffrey averaged -160 odds on the anytime touchdown market. A bettor who placed a wager each week would have been up nearly three units after Week 18, per Action Network’s Gilles Gallant.
At what point does the value run out on one of the league’s premier skill players? That’s what the betting public will have to weigh ahead of Week 3 against the Giants. The fact New York has allowed the second-most rushing touchdowns in the league through two weeks (five) might make the decision even more difficult, however.