NFL Week 1 Picks: Bengals On Upset Alert; Eagles Ready To Roll Patriots?

Summer is over, football fans. Week 1 of the NFL is upon us, which means it’s the triumphant return of NESN.com’s weekly against-the-spread picks.

To the chagrin of many, NESN.com’s Mike Cole and Ricky Doyle have returned for yet another season to give their picks for each and every game on the NFL slate for the entire 2023-24 campaign.

And just like every team in the NFL, the NESN.com prognosticating duo gets a fresh slate entering the new year, although things could get ugly quickly with the unpredictable nature of Week 1.

Speaking of unpredictable, make sure you’re making “The Spread,” NESN’s football picks podcast, part of your pod rotation. Mike and Ricky highlighted some of their best bets for Week 1 in this week’s episode.

Without further ado, let’s get into their picks, starting with the curtain-jerker Thursday night in Kansas City.

THURSDAY, SEPT. 7

Detroit Lions at (-4.5) Kansas City Chiefs, 8:20 p.m. ET
Mike: Chiefs.
Ricky: Chiefs.

Kansas City obviously has a major issue on its hands with Travis Kelce’s injury, but if anything, that makes me want to take KC even more. The line has dropped since news of the All-Pro tight end’s knee issue, and his absence certainly would hurt, but I’m not ready to buy the Lions’ hype. KC wins a semi-comfy opener. –MC

SUNDAY, SEPT. 10

Carolina Panthers at (-3.5) Atlanta Falcons, 1 p.m.
Mike: Falcons.
Ricky: Falcons.

Sneaky fascinating matchup, if only because the door is open for someone — anyone — to grab hold of the NFC South this season. Don’t love laying more than a field goal in a Week 1 divisional matchup, but that angst is offset by the inevitable growing pains of a rookie quarterback in his NFL debut. According to VSiN, rookie QBs are 1-15-1 SU and 4-13 ATS in their last 17 Week 1-3 games. That spells trouble for Bryce Young, especially with Atlanta’s arrow seemingly pointing up in 2023. –RD

Houston Texans at (-10) Baltimore Ravens, 1 p.m.
Mike: Ravens.
Ricky: Ravens.

This looked like a no-brainer at first, although I have started to have second thoughts about laying that many points with a Ravens team that didn’t play Lamar Jackson in the preseason. The play here might be Houston with the points in the first half, but I ultimately think Baltimore’s big-play potential leads to them pulling away late for a 13- or 14-point win. –MC

(-2.5) Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns, 1 p.m.
Mike: Browns.
Ricky: Browns.

Serious outright upset potential here. Not only is it a favorable spot for Cleveland, with divisional home underdogs being 16-7-2 SU and 21-4 ATS in Week 1 since 2009, per VSiN. The Browns also made major improvements on the defensive side, which could fluster the Bengals’ spotty offensive line and disrupt Joe Burrow just enough as he works his way back from a preseason injury. And don’t worry about Deshaun Watson’s late-2022 struggles. He didn’t just forget how to play football. –RD

(-5) Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts, 1 p.m.
Mike: Colts.
Ricky: Colts.

There’s something uncomfortable about laying that many points in this division this early in the season — even if the Colts might be one of the NFL’s worst teams. Anthony Richardson is going to struggle mightily at times this season, but I could see a confidence-building, late-game touchdown to get inside the number here. –MC

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at (-6) Minnesota Vikings, 1 p.m.
Mike: Vikings.
Ricky: Bucs.

Not particularly high on either of these teams entering the year. The Vikings are due for regression, based on their advanced metrics, success in one-score games last season and a semi roster rebuild. Whereas the Bucs look like a candidate for the NFL’s worst record. As such, might as well take the points and hope for some Week 1 wackiness. –RD

Tennessee Titans at (-3) New Orleans Saints, 1 p.m.
Mike: Titans.
Ricky: Titans.

With the complete lack of recent evidence to base opinions on in Week 1, the coaching matchup does seem to loom a little larger. There might not be a bigger mismatch than Mike Vrabel vs. Dennis Allen, especially when Vrabel is catching points. –MC

(-2.5) San Francisco 49ers at Pittsburgh Steelers, 1 p.m.
Mike: Steelers.
Ricky: Steelers.

Wouldn’t it be fitting if San Francisco’s offense immediately stalls under Brock Purdy after trading Trey Lance? Admittedly, the unit has a high floor thanks to an abundance of playmakers and Kyle Shanahan pressing the buttons. But facing the Steelers on the road is no easy task. This could be a classic Week 1 rock fight. –RD

Arizona Cardinals at (-7) Washington Commanders, 1 p.m.
Mike: Commanders.
Ricky: Commanders.

Laying a touchdown with the Commanders is not fun! But if you Google “Cardinals quarterback,” both Joshua Dobbs and Clayton Tune show up. The saying “if you have two quarterbacks, you have none” really looms large when you’re talking about Joshua Dobbs and Clayton Tune. –MC

Green Bay Packers at (-1) Chicago Bears, 4:25 p.m.
Mike: Bears.
Ricky: Packers.

Are the Packers better off now with Jordan Love instead of Aaron Rodgers? It’s crazy to think, obviously, with Rodgers being one of the greatest of all time. But something felt stale in Green Bay, to the point where a quarterback change could be exactly what the doctor ordered. Feels like people are snoozing on the Packers, whereas the Bears have become the NFC’s sexy “sleeper” pick. –RD

Las Vegas Raiders at (-3.5) Denver Broncos, 4:25 p.m.
Mike: Raiders.
Ricky: Broncos.

If the hook is there to entice me to take the Raiders, mission accomplished. Maybe Sean Payton completely turns around the Broncos, but I need to see it first before laying that many in the division against a team that swept them last season. –MC

Miami Dolphins at (-3) Los Angeles Chargers, 4:25 p.m.
Mike: Dolphins.
Ricky: Chargers.

Can’t wait to see what the Chargers’ offense looks like this season with Kellen Moore replacing Joe Lombardi as the OC. If they’re smart, the Bolts will lean heavily on Justin Herbert’s arm talent and push the ball downfield more frequently, a recipe that should serve Los Angeles well in Week 1 against a hobbled Miami secondary that replaced Jalen Ramsey with, uh, Eli Apple. –RD

(-4) Philadelphia Eagles at New England Patriots, 4:25 p.m.
Mike: Eagles.
Ricky: Eagles.

Five years ago, the thought of getting points at home with Bill Belichick would be a no-brainer. Then again, five years ago, Belichick also had Tom Brady. This is a brutal matchup for New England, a team that has clear question marks on the offensive line and might not have the defensive speed to keep up with mobile quarterbacks. So, like, basically the Eagles. –MC

Los Angeles Rams at (-5.5) Seattle Seahawks, 4:25 p.m.
Mike: Rams.
Ricky: Rams.

It’s been a rapid fall for the Rams, the Super Bowl champions of two seasons ago. And it’s been a meteoric rise for the Seahawks, who crushed the last two drafts and benefitted from an out-of-nowhere Geno Smith emergence. But it’s a Week 1 divisional matchup. This line is too steep, as there’s a non-zero chance Smith can’t carry over his 2022 success and Sean McVay schemes up something tasty for the Rams’ offense, even without Cooper Kupp. –RD

(-3.5) Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants, 8:20 p.m.
Mike: Giants.
Ricky: Giants.

The Cowboys have been slow starters under Mike McCarthy, losing all three openers in his tenure, while failing to cover in two of three. Brian Daboll having all summer to scheme for the Dallas defense should help, while the Cowboys offense is in a transition following the departure of Kellen Moore and could also be without guard Tyler Smith. That’s a tough break with Dexter Lawrence licking his chops across the line of scrimmage. –MC

MONDAY, SEPT. 11

(-2.5) Buffalo Bills at New York Jets, 8:15 p.m.
Mike: Bills.
Ricky: Bills.

Is Buffalo suddenly being overlooked? It kinda feels that way, probably because they were a popular Super Bowl pick the past couple of seasons yet failed to fulfill that championship potential. The same can’t be said for New York, where expectations are sky-high for the J-E-T-S with Aaron Rodgers under center. Just not sure the Jets have effectively closed the gap. This is an opportunity for the Bills to show they’re still the class of the AFC East. –RD