Patriots-Eagles Betting Preview: Trends, Props, Pick For Week 1
Tom Brady's return to Foxboro could be a negative for New England
All the talk and hype is over with a full slate of regular season football beginning Sunday, and the Patriots will have a lot to prove.
New England is projected to be the worst team in the AFC East, and another season without playoff football could put Bill Belichick on the hot seat. The pressure won't be alleviated when Tom Brady makes his return to Gillette Stadium in a pregame ceremony.
The Patriots also welcome the defending NFC champion Philadelphia Eagles to town, and while Nick Sirianni's side changed this offseason, they're still expected to be one of the top teams in the league.
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Bill O'Brien was brought in this offseason to overhaul the offense and provide stability to Mac Jones' development. The offseason preparation will be put to the test against a team that ranked first in EPA per dropback on defense last season. The Patriots already might be underhanded with key players on the injury report heading into the matchup and huge questions around the offensive line. That's not a recipe for success against the top pass-rushing unit in the NFL, according to Pro Football Focus.
New England likely will lean on its run game and its defense. Philadelphia was somewhat of a run funnel last season, ranking 23rd in rush EPA on defense. Ezekiel Elliott will need to give the Patriots something in relief of Rhamondre Stevenson, and New England's secondary will have to win the tough battle against A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith.
Here's all you need to know about Sunday's Patriots-Eagles game from a betting perspective, with lines and props from FanDuel Sportsbook.
(-4) Philadelphia Eagles at New England Patriots
Total: 45
When: Sunday, Sept. 10 at 4:25 p.m. ET
Where: Gillette Stadium; Foxboro, Mass.
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BETTING TRENDS TO KNOW
The Eagles tend to start slow at the beginning of the season in terms of covering the spread as they are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 September games, and four of their last six games in September have gone under the total. They've also been 4-3 ATS in their last seven road openers.
New England is similar in slow starts with five of its last six games in September going under the total. But New England also is 8-2 ATS in its last 1 games as an underdog. And the Patriots are 4-2-1 ATS in games after getting more than two weeks of rest.
PATRIOTS PROP TO CONSIDER
Hunter Henry anytime touchdown (+230) -- New England's injury report created a sparse prop market for the Patriots on Friday morning. If DeVante Parker is unable to suit up, that opens up opportunities for other pass catchers, so the market isn't going to hand out selections that easily.
So we are going to get dicey with the anytime touchdown market, which is extremely volatile since touchdowns aren't always predictive. But we're rolling the dice with Henry given O'Brien likely will utilize two-tight-end sets often and Henry's close relationship with Jones. Philadelphia's linebacker and safety corps aren't world beaters like its cornerback and defensive line group, so targeting tight ends might be the key to success for the offense.
EAGLES PROP TO CONSIDER
Jalen Hurts over 1.5 passing touchdowns (+112) -- Philadelphia is expected to regress, but Hurts should still maintain his MVP-level production. There's also a possibility he might be even better. Hurts only threw 60 passes in the fourth quarter last season. For context, Cooper Rush threw the same amount of passes in nine games last season. The Eagles dominated teams in the first half of games last season. That likely won't happen again, but it shows there's a case Hurts has an even higher ceiling he can reach if he can get the job done in the final quarter of close games. This 1.5 number might be too low if that's the case.
PICK: Eagles -4
This game might be closer than what the perception indicates. It's possible Jones struggles, and the Gilette Stadium crowd erupts in "Brady" chants, but a smart game plan from O'Brien could keep the Patriots within distance. That's when the margins that Siranni is great at exploring will become the difference. The Eagles were sixth in neutral pass rate and fifth in going for it on fourth down when they should last season. When the team needs to keep a drive alive, Siranni knows what buttons to push. Belichick might get too conservative and choose to trust his rookie kicker Chad Ryland or rookie punter Bryce Baringer rather than go for the win. Expect Philadelphia to be aggressive and hunt for touchdowns, which will be enough to cover.
