Patriots-Colts Betting Preview: Trends, Prop, Pick For Week 10

Historical trends don't bode well for New England


Nov 10, 2023

The Patriots and Colts travel to Germany for a Sunday matchup that could decide the fate of Bill Belichick.

New England owner Robert Kraft reportedly grew frustrated during his team’s 2-7 run heading into Week 10, and there’s a possibility Belichick will get fired if the Patriots don’t deliver against Indianapolis. Kraft reportedly has a “home run” choice to replace Belichick and another familiar face could return to the front office.

Historical trends for the NFL’s International Series don’t favor Belichick and company. Favorites tend to win out more often than not with a 20-10-1 record in the NFL’s past 15 seasons in London before the 2023 season, per Odds Shark. However, those teams were 16-15 against the spread and on the over/under split. This season, favorites were 2-1 straight up and against the spread in London and 1-2 toward the over.

The NFL also played in Mexico, and this Sunday will be the third time a game is played in Germany. Favorites were 4-0 straight up and ATS in Mexico, and those matchups split on the total. In two Germany games, favorites won and covered both times with the matchup going under the total.

Indianapolis isn’t a heavy favorite this Sunday, but if you’re one of the few sickos waking up in the morning and placing a wager on this game, the favorite and under might be the way to go.

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Here’s all you need to know about this Sunday’s Patriots-Colts matchup from a betting perspective. All odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.

(-1.5) Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots
Total: 43.5
When: Sunday, Nov. 12 at 9:30 p.m. ET
Where: Deutsche Bank Park; Frankfurt, Germany

As stated above, favorites and unders hit favorably in international games. There’s no clear answer as to why, but the “better” team does come out favorably on neutral sites. These sides split this matchup the past two seasons, including the total. The Colts are 2-8 ATS as a favorite, but the Patriots are 1-9 ATS as an underdog and 0-7 ATS as an underdog of seven or fewer points. New England is 3-0 ATS in international games and 1-2 toward the over. The Colts only have played in one other international game and lost in a game that went over the total.

Pharaoh Brown anytime touchdown (+2300) — Mike Gesicki hasn’t offered New England much this season, but Brown delivered big plays in his limited playing time, and if the Patriots need a spark, they should consider dialing up a few plays for the former Houston Texans tight end. This isn’t the same long-shot as it was earlier this season but still enticing enough to throw a shot at.

Michael Pittman Jr. over 66.5 receiving yards (-114) — The Patriots remain a pass funnel, ranking bottom-five in defensive dropback expected points added and bottom-10 in defensive dropback success rate. The Colts still want to establish it with their one-two punch: Jonathan Taylor and Zack Moss. But if Indianapolis wants to generate explosive plays, it will have to go through Gardner Minshew and the passing attack. Pittman has 21 combined targets in the past two games heading into Week 10, and his size matchup over New England’s corners should help him have a big day.

PICK: Colts -1.5 (-115)
Let’s root for chaos. What if the Patriots lost in Germany? Would Kraft really fire Belichick? That scenario seems unfathomable, and fans deserve to see what happens. Even if it’s a letdown, fans still can complain about how nothing happened and bemoan the bleak future the franchise projects to be. Indianapolis still is competitive enough for a postseason spot, so it will be going out for a win to stay on pace within the AFC South. Minshew also can work his magic for a game-winning touchdown, which is a better bet to back instead of the agony of another game-losing turnover from Mac Jones.

Thumbnail photo via Paul Rutherford/USA TODAY Sports Images

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