New York effectively sealed the deal by earning its first win over the Angels in Los Angeles this season, winning 6-5 on Tuesday. That victory followed a 5-1 Red Sox loss to Zack Greinke in Kansas City, stretching the gap between the teams to six games, and dropping the Yankees’ magic number for the AL East title to six.
Even if the Red Sox were to pull off a series split in Kansas City by winning their next two games, and the Yankees were to drop the rubber match against the Halos on Wednesday, Boston would still come to the Bronx trailing by 4 1/2 games when the rivals square off in a three-game series this weekend.
Moreover, because Boston’s ace Josh Beckett is scheduled to pitch in Kansas City on Wednesday, the Red Sox will not have him for the set in New York, and it’s highly improbable that they could pull off a sweep in pitching matchups of Jon Lester–CC Sabathia, Daisuke Matsuzaka–Joba Chamberlain and Paul Byrd–Andy Pettitte.
That means, even assuming the optimal scenario for the Red Sox heading into the series with the Yankees, New York’s division lead figures to be at least 3 1/2 games coming out, and the magic number will be down to no more than four.
The Red Sox may have a cakewalk of a last week — a seven-game homestand against the fading Blue Jays and Indians — but if the pinstripes’ magic number is four or less, what Boston does is essentially irrelevant. The Yankees will host Kansas City for three games — no Greinke in that series, based on the schedule — and visit Tampa Bay for three to close out the regular season.
Even if the Red Sox went on a tear and won all of their last seven games, the Yankees would need only a 4-2 performance to finish ahead of them in the standings. And that’s assuming best-case scenarios before the teams meet up as well.
Were the Red Sox to sweep the Yankees in their face-off this weekend and reduce the AL East gap to 1 1/2 games, their chances would improve somewhat. But even if the magic number is still six come Monday, Joe Girardi’s team would simply need to hold its own the rest of the way to fend off Terry Francona’s.
In other words, to give themselves a respectable chance of winning the division, the Red Sox would need to win their next two games against the Royals, sweep the Yankees this weekend, and take no less than six of seven from Toronto and Cleveland next week. That amounts to 11 wins in the last 12 games – and still, Boston would need some help.
Mathematically, the Red Sox still have a 2.1 percent chance of winning the AL East. Realistically, the Yankees might as well pop those champagne bottles now.
