If Allen can go, expect Celtics coach Doc Rivers to pencil him in as the starting shooting guard. Rivers is not the type of coach to keep a veteran on the bench just because a second-year player like Avery Bradley or an emerging reserve like Keyon Dooling have had decent runs in the All-Star's absence.
The winning record aside, the Celtics have benefited in other ways from Allen's time away. This time last week, there was doubt whether the Celtics backcourt beyond Rajon Rondo could keep pace with the backcourts of the best teams in the East. Since then, they have discovered that Bradley is not allergic to putting the ball in the hoop, that Dooling can still hit a timely shot and that Mickael Pietrus can extend his offensive game beyond spot-up 3-pointers if need be.
"I like Avery-Rondo," Rivers said. "I liked Pietrus-Rondo, just because of the defensive presence. You just hope offensively they can make enough shots to keep everybody honest."
As effective as Allen has been shooting the ball this season with a career-best .459 3-point field goal percentage, he has been a drag on the defense at times. In the Celtics' first game in Philadelphia, the Sixers had an exorbitant 126.0 offensive rating when Allen was on the court. The Heat posted a 120.0 offensive rating with Allen on the court in their only meeting.
By comparison, the Sixers have an offensive rating (a measure of how many points a team scores per 100 possessions) of 101.9 for the season. The Heat's offensive rating is one of the best in the league at 106.2.
To be fair, both of those ratings came in only one game each, which is too small a sample size to blame it entirely on Allen. But the sizes of the disparities between the teams' normal offensive production and their production against Allen are stark.
Not surprisingly, the Celtics offense drops off when Bradley is on the court in place of Allen, but Bradley has come a long way in closing the gap between his offense and defense. The Celtics have been about four points better on defense with Bradley on the court for most of the season, but recently his offensive production has ticked upward. Bradley now has a plus-1.21 net rating, which is close enough to Allen's 1.45 net rating that the Celtics do not suffer a huge drop-off when Bradley is on the court.
The stats so far do not say the same positive things about Dooling. Barring an explosion of offense in the final weeks, this will not go down as Dooling's finest season. He is on pace for career lows in points, shot attempts, free throws, assists and steals.
Dooling admitted after Wednesday's game that he is as susceptible to the ups and downs of a season as Bradley or any other first- or second-year player. He has seemed more comfortable in his role lately, averaging 4.8 points per game in the last five games after going scoreless in five of his six games prior to that.
"Just because you're not a young player doesn't mean you're exempt from the emotions of the game," Dooling said. "You ride the highs. Sometimes you feel the lows. Just to be at the point where a team makes a run and you don't get snatched out of the game, to be able to stay out there and make plays, is a gratifying feeling. It's progress."
Progress is something the Celtics have made a lot of in the second half of the season, and learning to do it without their sharp-shooting guard has given them more options as the postseason approaches.
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