It’s not at all crazy to believe Julian Edelman will have an immediate and massive impact on the New England Patriots’ offense as he returns from a four-game suspension.
Edelman will serve as the Patriots’ slot receiver in three-receiver personnel groupings, a position the offense basically hasn’t utilized or featured this season.
Chris Hogan leads the team with 84 routes run out of the slot, according to Pro Football Focus. Hogan is trailed by Phillip Dorsett (27 routes), Cordarrelle Patterson (15 routes), Riley McCarron (nine routes) and Josh Gordon (one route) in slot duties this season. This is an offense that long has been predicated on the success of inside receivers, from Troy Brown to Wes Welker to Danny Amendola and Edelman. It’s not shocking it has struggled out of the gate without a player of that ilk to feature.
New England’s wideouts have just 10 catches on 18 targets (55.6 percent catch rate) for 141 yards with three touchdowns out of the slot through four games. And that includes Cordarrelle Patterson’s 55-yard touchdown grab from Week 4.
Here are the Patriots’ year-by-year slot stats through four games since Edelman became a key piece in the offense five years ago:
2013: 32 catches, 47 targets, 255 yards, one touchdown, 68.1 percent catch rate
2014: 10 catches, 18 targets, 88 yards, one touchdown, 55.6 percent catch rate
2015: 29 catches, 37 targets, 257 yards, two touchdowns, 78.4 percent catch rate
2016:Â 25 catches, 30 targets, 311 yards, two touchdowns, 83.3 percent catch rate
2017:Â 23 catches, 35 targets, 370 yards, three touchdowns, 65.7 percent catch rate
Extrapolate the Patriots’ current slot production over a full 16-game season, and they would get 30 catches on 54 targets for 423 yards with nine touchdowns and a 55.6 percent catch rate from the position.
Here are New England’s full-season slot stats since 2013:
2013: 104 catches, 161 targets, 1,094 yards, five touchdowns, 64.6 percent catch rate
2014: 70 catches, 105 targets, 621 yards, two touchdowns, 66.7 percent catch rate
2015: 102 catches, 136 targets, 1,090 yards, seven touchdowns, 75 percent catch rate
2016: 104 catches, 136 targets, 1,299 yards, eight touchdowns, 76.5 percent catch rate
2017: 83 catches, 123 targets, 956 yards, seven touchdowns, 67.5 percent catch rate
So, if Edelman didn’t come back, the Patriots would be on pace to have the fewest catches, targets and yards and lowest catch rate over the past five years by a significant margin. Based on our research, New England wouldn’t have received that little production out of the slot since 2006, before the team added Welker.
That 2014 total is an odd outlier, since Edelman and Amendola both were part of the offense that season. The Patriots simply didn’t use Amendola much in his second season with the team. They mostly played in two-receiver sets, heavily utilizing tight ends Rob Gronkowski, Michael Hoomanwanui and Tim Wright. Wright actually finished that season with more receiving yards than Amendola, while Edelman mostly played outside as a “Z” receiver that season.
Edelman still worked the shallow part of the field that year, catching 118 passes on 160 targets for 1,252 yards with five touchdowns, including playoffs. He picked up 780 of those yards on catches within 9 yards of the line of scrimmage. Edelman also likely will receive snaps in the “Z” role this season when he’s on the field in two-receiver sets.
Hogan has been an effective receiver for New England in the past, but he doesn’t have Edelman, Amendola, Welker or Brown’s ability to get open quickly. Edelman’s quickness within 9 yards of the line of scrimmage has been sorely missed and is a big reason why quarterback Tom Brady hasn’t been as efficient as usual.
Brady is completing just 64.4 percent of his passes and has nine touchdowns and four interceptions. We’ve seen him forcing passes downfield with more regularity in recent weeks with no open shallow option.
Even if Edelman, coming off a four-game suspension and torn ACL, isn’t at 100 percent, he should be more effective in the slot role than Hogan, Patterson or Dorsett. That’s why the Patriots’ offense, which already looked better in Week 4, should receive a major jolt in Edelman’s return.
For more grades, advanced statistics and more at Pro Football Focus, go to ProFootballFocus.com.
