Leading up to the start of NFL free agency, NESN.com will break down the New England Patriots’ top potential veteran quarterback options. Next up: Carolina Panthers QB Teddy Bridgewater.
TEDDY BRIDGEWATER
2021 status: Under contract with Panthers
2020 stats: 340-of-492, 69.1 percent, 3,733 yards, 15 touchdowns, 11 interceptions, 7.6 yards per attempt, 92.1 passer rating, 64.2 quarterback rating
Pros: You know what you’re getting in Bridgewater, and he won’t break the bank. The Panthers quarterback is the definition of a game manager: He’ll throw for a high completion percentage but isn’t much (at all) of a downfield thrower. He’s essentially modern-day Chad Pennington, and that type of player can certainly be an average starter in the NFL.
Carolina labored to a 4-11 finish with Bridgewater at the helm in 2020, but he has a 26-23 career record as a starter. Bridgewater even went 5-0 starting for the Saints in 2019 while filling in for Drew Brees. Of course, Taysom Hill also went 3-1 as New Orleans’ starter in 2020, so perhaps the Saints just survive backups better than most teams.
The Patriots would be taking on a two-year contract worth $39 million if they traded for Bridgewater, and he wouldn’t cost more than a mid-to-late-round pick. The 2014 second-round selection would carry an $18 million cap hit in 2021, and New England has more than $60 million in cap space. If Bridgewater ultimately is released by Carolina, New England could probably sign him for roughly half that cost.
The Louisville product was a roughly average starting quarterback in 2020, ranking 17th out of 35 qualified quarterbacks in QBR, but that’s despite the fact that he had an impressive arsenal of weapons around him. Running back Christian McCaffrey played just three games while Mike Davis admirably filled in out of the backfield with over 1,000 yards from scrimmage. The Panthers produced two 1,000-yard receivers in D.J. Moore and Robby Anderson, and Curtis Samuel, Carolina’s third option, is expected to command a large contract when he hits free agency next week. Samuel also produced over 1,000 yards from scrimmage.
It’s fair to wonder how Bridgewater threw for only 15 touchdowns last season with one of the NFL’s best receiving corps.
Since Bridgewater entered the NFL, he ranks 21st out of 32 qualified QBs in EPA (expected points added) + CPOE (completion percentage over expected), 26th in EPA per play, 27th in success rate, 11th in CPOE and 30th in air yards.
Bridgewater ranks 18th in EPA + CPOE, 23rd in EPA per play, 23rd in success rate, seventh in CPOE and 30th in air yards since 2018. He ranked 15th in EPA + CPOE, 19th in EPA per play, 16th in success rate, seventh in CPOE and 26th in air yards in 2020
Like we said, he’s an accurate quarterback who keeps his passes short and he still isn’t overly efficient.
Cons: What are the chances that the Patriots can put three pass-catchers better than Moore, Anderson and Samuel around Bridgewater? They’re hoping to sign the Panthers’ third-best receiver in free agency this offseason.
There’s also a reason why the Panthers are, or should be, looking to move on from Bridgewater. He is who he is, and if Carolina is going to take the next step, it should probably find a better passer through the draft.
As accurate as Bridgewater is, he also turns the ball over at a decently high rate. His completion percentage ranked fifth in the NFL last season, but his interception rate ranked 20th. In seasons Bridgewater started more than five games, he’s never had an interception rate lower than 2 percent. With just 15 touchdown passes last season, he also ranked 30th in touchdown rate.
Verdict: We’re struggling to find too many reasons why the Patriots would want to trade for Bridgewater unless they become desperate. If Bridgewater is released, then perhaps he could be a decent bridge (more like Teddy Bridgestarter) option to pair with a young QB as long as New England spends big on pass-catchers. Bridgewater can win games, but it doesn’t necessarily come easy. The Patriots should prefer most (if not all) of the names below over Bridgewater.
Other potential Patriots QBs: Cam Newton, Deshaun Watson, Marcus Mariota, Jameis Winston, Jimmy Garoppolo, Jacoby Brissett, Ryan Fitzpatrick
