Week 5 has come to a close, and things aren’t looking so hot for the Raiders.
Las Vegas blew a 17-point lead to the Kansas City Chiefs in a wild game featuring questionable penalties, uncalled penalties and interesting coaching decisions.
One that stood out for many was Josh McDaniels’ decision to go for a two-point conversion after Derek Carr connected with Davante Adams for a 48-yard touchdown. Josh Jacobs took the carry but was stuffed by the Chiefs defensive line, and the Raiders went down 30-29. Kansas City punted on the following drive, and Las Vegas had a chance to give Daniel Carlson a shot to hit the game-winning field goal. They stalled out at the their own 48 after Adams and Hunter Renfrow collided while running their routes.
Fans were quick to point to the two-point conversion attempt as to why the Raiders lost the game. It was a curious decision, to say the least. Being bold and going for the win isn’t a bad choice — see New York Giants head coach Brian Dabboll doing that in Week 1 against the Tennessee Titans. But it seemed too early to execute that strategy with 4:27 left in the game.
But, as ESPN’s Mina Kimes points out, the failed conversion actually made Kansas City more conservative. It was a coin flip choice for most models in the decision to go for two or kick the extra point, but at fourth-and-3 on the Las Vegas 46, it was a clear go-for-it choice for the Chiefs, but Andy Reid opted to play it safe and punt it.
Of course, many cried foul at analytics, but they didn’t seem to mind analytics when the Raiders went for it on a fourth-and-1, and Carr proceeded to throw a 58-yard touchdown pass to Adams.
These decisions are made with process in mind, or put simply, “process over results.” But the NFL is a results-based league, and there’s no easy way to explain your team being in last place in the division with a 1-4 record.
But there were many other things that caused Las Vegas to lose the game and for Kansas City to win. Travis Kelce scoring four touchdowns certainly helped, as did a bizarre defensive holding penalty against the Raiders on a field goal try in the fourth quarter.
The Chiefs also had their own aggressive two-point try that didn’t go their way, but they won the game, so it won’t be as questioned. Las Vegas also found itself on the wrong end of variance. After a 7-2 record in one-score games in 2021-22, the Raiders are now 0-4 in one-score games this season.
As late former NFL head coach Dennis Green put it best, “You play to win the game,” and sometimes you’re decisions to try to win don’t always work out.
