The 7-7 Patriots don’t need a victory Saturday, but a loss would put Bill Belichick’s team in dire straits.
No matter what happens in Week 16, eighth-seeded New England can’t be eliminated from NFL playoff contention. Even if the Patriots lose to the Cincinnati Bengals and the seventh-seeded Dolphins (vs. Green Bay Packers) and sixth-seeded Los Angeles Chargers (at Indianapolis Colts) both win, New England still would have a chance at qualifying for the postseason.
But the path would be a difficult one.
First and foremost, the Patriots, who no longer can win the AFC East, would need to win their final two games — including a Week 17 home matchup against Miami — to finish 9-8. Their season finale will take place in Buffalo against the Bills.
New England then would need the Dolphins to lose at home to the New York Jets in their season finale, thus finishing 9-8. In this scenario, the Patriots, who wouldn’t have to worry about any of the teams currently ranked below them, would get into the postseason by virtue of owning the conference-record tiebreaker over Miami.
But that’s not all. The Patriots also would need at least one loss from the Las Vegas Raiders over their final three games. The Raiders, currently 6-8, theoretically could win out to finish 9-8 and ahead of New England thanks to owning the head-to-head tiebreaker. Imagine if the Patriots miss the playoffs because of that disastrous final play at Allegiant Stadium.
The Raiders will finish their season with games against Pittsburgh Steelers, San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs. So, a 3-0 run is unlikely for Josh McDaniels and company.
But what about Los Angeles?
If the Chargers, currently 8-6, beat the Colts on Monday but lose their final two games, they also would finish 9-8. In that scenario, they and the Patriots both would be 9-8 overall and 7-5 in conference games, meaning the common-games tiebreaker would come into play.
Spare yourself the research and just know that Los Angeles would win that tiebreaker and finish ahead of New England. The Chargers’ final two games will come against the Rams and Denver Broncos.
However, things could get awfully weird if the Patriots, Chargers and Dolphins all finish 9-8. You can lump the 9-5 Ravens into that group, too, because they hypothetically could lose out.
According to ESPN’s playoff simulator, there’s a scenario in which the Patriots would finish ahead of those teams thanks to a three-team tiebreaker that’s far too difficult to explain. In one of our simulations, 9-8 New England finished ahead of 9-8 Baltimore, despite the Ravens owning the head-to-head tiebreaker.
Got all that? Good.
All of this is a long way of saying the Patriots could do themselves a big favor Saturday by beating Burrow and the Bengals. It also underscores just how costly that crushing loss in Vegas really was.
