Which Patriots Receiver(s) Would Be Squeezed Out By DeAndre Hopkins Deal?

The Patriots-DeAndre Hopkins chatter can now be taken seriously.

The free agent receiver reportedly plans to visit New England sometime next week after spending time with the Tennessee Titans over the weekend. Hopkins, 31, is free to sign with any team after his recent Arizona Cardinals release.

The Friday morning reports accomplish two things: validating the offseason rumors about Hopkins and the Patriots, and indicating the five-time Pro Bowler is open to reuniting with Bill O’Brien. Hopkins’ checkered history with O’Brien from their time with the Houston Texans had been viewed as prohibitive to a deal with New England, but we now can somewhat pump the brakes on that speculation.

None of this means a union between Hopkins and the Patriots is likely. And there still are multiple reasons to believe Hopkins wouldn’t be a good fit in Bill Belichick’s program, most notably his approach to practicing.

Still, the Hopkins-Patriots thing now is more real than it’s been at any point in the offseason. As such, it’s worth exploring the potential domino effect created by signing the star receiver.

New England typically rolls with five receivers on its active roster. If we had to bet right now, that group will include JuJu Smith-Schuster, DeVante Parker, Kendrick Bourne, Tyquan Thornton and Demario Douglas, who was the busiest and most impressive rookie receiver during organized team activities. Fellow rookie Kayshon Boutte, while undeniably talented, feels like a longshot, as do local prospect Ed Lee and third-year pro Tre Nixon.

Signing Hopkins obviously would change the math.

Patriots’ Rookie Wideouts Take Center Stage At Latest Practice

Jun 6, 2023

If the Patriots don’t follow up a Hopkins deal by trading or releasing one of their established veterans, you probably could write off Nixon and all of the rookies unless someone earns a spot on special teams or benefits from a teammate suffering an injury. However, it’s hard to envision New England landing Hopkins without executing a corresponding move.

So, who would be the odd man out?

Smith-Schuster and Thornton aren’t going anywhere. That leaves Bourne and Parker, both of whom are entering the final year of their current contracts. The salary ramifications of moving on from either player are nearly the same, though ditching Parker would be slightly more beneficial.

Trade/release Bourne
Cap savings: $5.5 million
Dead-cap money: $1.4 million

Trade/release Parker
Cap savings: $6.2 million
Dead-cap money: $0

Keeping Bourne over Parker also would make more on-field sense.

Hopkins and Parker are similar receivers in that they’re injury-prone, relatively slow and don’t generate much separation (Hopkins would disagree with that assessment). They make their living on contested-catch ability, savvy route running and physicality. Do the Patriots really need two of those, especially when Smith-Schuster, though faster and more athletic than Jakobi Meyers, isn’t exactly a burner? New England should be in the business of adding speed, not subtracting it.

In contrast, holding onto Bourne would open the door for a dynamic and well-balanced Patriots pass-catching group.

Something like this:

— DeAndre Hopkins
— JuJu Smith-Schuster
— Kendrick Bourne
— Tyquan Thornton
— Demario Douglas
— Hunter Henry (TE)
— Mike Gesicki (TE)

Hopkins, an elite talent even in his twilight, would function as a far better version of Parker, capable of lining up in multiple spots and making big plays on the boundary. Smith-Schuster is a bigger, more versatile and more athletic version of Meyers — if he can stay healthy. Bourne can do a bit of everything, with speed and quickness that lead to needed playmaking and run-after-catch ability. Thornton, maybe the biggest X-factor on the team, is one of the fastest players in football and could develop into a weapon on the outside (Mac Jones believes he will). And then there’s Douglas, whose small size and short-area quickness could offer the kind of jitterbug element on screens and end-arounds that’s been missing in recent seasons. Perhaps Boutte or Nixon earn a spot over Douglas, but either way, one of the three makes the team in this scenario.

Add in a prototypical red-zone threat in Henry, a de facto slot receiver in Gesicki and capable pass-catching backs in Rhamondre Stevenson and Ty Montgomery, and the Patriots could be kicking with gas on offense.

With all that said, a trade/release of Bourne wouldn’t be a shocking outcome. Jones loves playing with him, but Bourne fell out of favor last season and probably would net more in a trade than Parker. You could argue he needs a fresh start to get his career back on track. It’s also possible that New England would keep both of them in an effort to give its receiving corps more proven commodities.

But simply parting ways with Parker would make too much sense. The Patriots would save more money, their offense would be younger and more dynamic, and they’d be able to give an opportunity to a promising rookie.