Mac Jones is entering a make-or-break season with the Patriots, after showing promise as a rookie in 2021 and regressing under less-than-ideal coaching circumstances in 2022.

This makes it nearly impossible to project New England’s quarterback situation beyond 2023, as a lot of variables could play into who takes the Patriots’ first snap of the 2024 campaign.

Still, ESPN NFL insider Dan Graziano on Wednesday attempted to predict the league’s 2024 quarterback landscape, offering a “most likely outcome” and a “long shot outcome” for each team facing QB uncertainty beyond this year. While Graziano believes Jones could “click” with new Patriots offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien, paving the way for New England to exercise the young signal-caller’s fifth-year option next offseason, he also isn’t ruling out a scenario where Jones stumbles in his third NFL season.

Here’s what Graziano wrote regarding the Patriots’ “long shot outcome” at quarterback for 2024:

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Jones struggles, Bailey Zappe replaces him and looks great, and the Pats enter the 2024 offseason with a full-blown quarterback controversy. And perhaps they join many teams on this list with a high draft pick to select a new one.

Zappe filled in admirably for Jones when the latter missed three games with an injury last season. The 2022 fourth-round pick didn’t exactly light the world on fire, though. The Patriots’ QB job seemingly remains Jones’ to lose in 2023.

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There’s reason to be optimistic about Jones’ potential this season, as he has a legitimate offensive coordinator again after New England leaned on Matt Patricia and Joe Judge to spearhead the offense in 2022. If Jones falters, it’ll likely be an indication that the 2021 first-round pick simply isn’t the Patriots’ long-term answer at QB.

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