Trey Lance To Patriots? Flimsy Case For, Strong Case Against Trade

On March 26, 2021, the 49ers traded three-first round picks to the Miami Dolphins for the third overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft. They used the pick to select Trey Lance, a tantalizing quarterback prospect out of North Dakota State.

Two years and five months later, San Francisco reportedly is prepared to trade Lance. The 49ers instead will roll with Brock Purdy, the final pick in last year's draft, as their starting quarterback with Sam Darnold established as the top backup. Lance, who's attempted just 102 passes since entering the NFL, officially is third on San Fran's depth chart.

It's a stunning failure for all involved, and should serve as a cautionary tale for teams investing too heavily in inexperienced quarterbacks. (Looking at you, Indianapolis Colts.)

It also begs the question: Should the New England Patriots get involved?

Boston sports talk radio shows already have planted a predictable flag in the ground. And it's hard to blame them, as the 23-year-old QBs as wildly talented and high-character as Lance rarely become available. Plus, Mac Jones still has much to prove after a disastrous follow-up to an impressive rookie campaign.

For what it's worth, as of Thursday afternoon, there weren't any reports tying the Patriots to Lance.

"I would be surprised if they did (pursue a trade)," The Athletic's Jeff Howe said Thursday during a 98.5 The Sports Hub Appearance. "I'm not sure if they're going to be interested."

Nevertheless, we cracked some knuckles and crafted cases for and against New England pursuing a Trey Lance trade.

CASE FOR
A true lottery ticket
It all depends on the price. Howe on Thursday reported that some executives believe Lance will fetch the 49ers either a third-round pick or a third- and late-round pick. A second-round pick could be on the table if a team gets "desperate." If that's the price, the Patriots -- and every other team, really -- should pass.

However, most reportedly believe the best San Fran can hope for is a Day 3 selection, something in the fifth or sixth round. In that case, New England should consider it -- because why the heck not? Jones might be franchise-quarterback material, but the jury is out, and Lance's athleticism and play-making ability give him a higher ceiling. Moreover, Jones' looming contract situation could result in his exit next offseason, potentially leaving the Patriots in a really bad spot. Why not develop someone like Lance as a low-risk, high-reward insurance option?

Perfect landing spot
Lance has been through a lot. He entered the league facing significant pressure as a third-overall pick, and already is labeled as a major bust. He also has endured multiple injuries, including a broken ankle that wiped out most of his sophomore campaign. Lance might need to enter the NFL’s career rehab program, with Zach Wilson the first to greet him at the door.

He must go somewhere he can sit for at least a couple of seasons to rebuild his confidence and all-around game. Somewhere very few people – not even fans without their Zappe Fever booster shots – will call for him to replace the established starter. Somewhere he can learn under capable, smart coaches who won’t rush his development or thrust him into a situation he isn’t prepared for.

Say what you want about the job Bill Belichick has done since Tom Brady left, but the Patriots still check most of those boxes. Lance could take a deep breath, get the sponge treatment and soak up knowledge from some of the brightest minds in football.

The Bailey Zappe factor
This really could be its own think piece, but we'll tackle it here.

You could argue the Patriots shouldn't move on from Zappe. Right now, they have two young quarterbacks who can play winning football. They shouldn't be in a rush to remove one from the equation, not when they must make a decision on Jones' fifth-year option next spring. But you also could make the case for trading Zappe and eliminating the distraction his presence creates.

We all know what happened last season against the Chicago Bears. And some fans never let up afterward, ignoring the Matt Patricia variable and calling for Zappe every time Jones and the offense struggled. Ask yourself this: If Jones starts the home opener with a three-and-out and an interception, how long before boos and "Zappe!" chants bounce around the renovated Gillette Stadium? That's not a situation anyone wants to relive. Devin McCourty will be the first to tell you the issue polarized New England's locker room.

We also can corroborate what other Patriots beat reporters have observed: The Jones-Zappe relationship might be in a bad place. Both players say all the right things, but we're not being hyperbolic in saying we haven't seen them interact once during training camp practices or preseason games. That doesn't mean they don't talk at all; we just haven't seen it. Oftentimes, Jones appears to go out of his way to avoid Zappe during practices.

A potential solution: Trade for Lance, move Zappe and let Trace McSorley be the top backup for a while -- or something.

CASE AGAINST
He might be a lost cause
Lance, who threw just one pass as a freshman in 2018, barely has played any football since 2019 when he appeared in 16 games for NDSU. All but one of the program's games in 2020 were wiped out by the COVID-19 pandemic, and Lance started just two games in each of his two NFL seasons. That's 21 starts in five years.

Consider this: Brady last season attempted 799 passes, including playoffs; Lance has attempted 742 passes combined in his high school, collegiate and professional careers. And if he were to join the Patriots, he likely wouldn't see any playing time this season barring injuries.

Given those factors, it's hard to envision Lance turning his career around and reaching his potential. It almost literally would come out of nowhere.

Poor scheme fit
The Patriots arguably should modernize their offense and create a high-flying attack led by a dual-threat quarterback, but right now they're an offense geared toward a traditional pocket passer. Yes, Bill O'Brien has infused the scheme with creativity and more college concepts, but it more or less is what New England fans are used to seeing.

The offense obviously isn't getting overhauled while Jones is the starter, meaning the bulk of Lance's practice work would come within the context of New England's current scheme, which isn't suited to his strengths. That only realistically could change next offseason if the Patriots decide to part ways with Jones. And even then, would New England really have seen enough from Lance to go all in on building its system around him?

Ultimately, the talent should dictate everything. Lance and the Patriots could figure it out if they need to. But in too many ways, it feels like a square peg in a round hole.

Potential distraction
Many of the quarterback distractions would leave with Zappe, but some would be replaced by Lance. He's a big name and instantly would become one of the biggest stories on the team.

Is it in anyone's best interests to saddle Jones with more of that baggage? The Patriots should put all their eggs in his basket this season and remove as much noise as possible. If Jones fails this time, New England probably will have its answer on whether he's the future of the franchise, and neither Zappe nor Lance would come to the rescue.

Some will say the presence of Lance, like that of Zappe, could motivate Jones. Be for him what Jimmy Garoppolo was for Brady. But that seems more like a fun talking point than something based on reality. If Jones can't motivate himself without a fringe backup QB generating headlines, then he probably won't last long as an NFL starter.

Bonus: The contract
Lance would cost just $940,000 in 2023 and roughly $5.3 million in 2024. That's not a ton, but the Patriots have far too many needs on their roster to be devoting that kind of money to a player who, right now, is a third-string quarterback.