Three Game-Defining Statistics Patriots Must Win To Compete With Bills

FOXBORO, Mass. — The 1-5 New England Patriots enter another difficult stretch of their schedule with back-to-back divisional matchups.

That starts with a home battle with the Buffalo Bills, who have won the AFC East in each of the last three seasons. The Patriots have just one win over the Bills since 2020, which came in the 14-10 win in Buffalo in some wacky weather in December of 2021. It’s hard to imagine that the Mac Jones-led Patriots moved to 9-4 with that win and held control of the No. 1 seed in the AFC given what has transpired since then.

Buffalo has won the last four contests, including a 47-17 stomping of New England in the 2021 AFC Wild Card round.

During that stretch, the Patriots have lost control of three key aspects of the game. In order to compete with Buffalo, New England must hold the advantage in these three categories.

Time of Possession
Buffalo has one of the league’s most explosive offenses with talented players in Stefon Diggs, Gabe Davis and James Cook around a true playmaker at quarterback in Josh Allen. The Patriots have to find a way to limit the time on the field for the Bills offense. New England did so in their run-heavy 2021 win, holding the ball for 32 minutes.

The Bills have won the time of possession battle in three of the last four matchups, most notably in a methodical 24-10 win in Foxboro last December with 38 minutes of ball control.

While the two offenses have two completely different styles and capabilities, keeping the ball away from the opponent has developed into a major theme of the divisional rivalry as of late.

No Matchup Found

Click here to enter a different Sportradar ID.

Story continues below advertisement

Third Down Rate
The Patriots have been utterly horrible at converting third-down attempts in this five-game stretch. There is no other way to describe it. Here are the numbers.

Week 13, 2021: 2-for-12

Week 16, 2021: 1-for-10

2021 AFC Wild Card: 7-for-14

Week 13, 2022: 3-for-12

Week 18, 2022: 4-for-13

In that same span, the Bills converted over 50% of their third-down conversions.

There are so many areas to watch when these two teams play. With that being said, success on third down will absolutely tell who leaves Gillette Stadium with a win on Sunday.

Turnover Margin
The Patriots have taken a steep decline in turnover differential in 2023, ranking last in the NFL just one season after having the league’s fourth-best rate. New England especially has to take care of the football against an opportunistic Buffalo unit.

New England has a -3 turnover differential against Buffalo in this five-game stretch. The Patriots actually have done a decent job taking the ball away, most recently forcing three Buffalo turnovers in last season’s regular-season finale.

If the Patriots take much better care of the football, they can take steps to put the game in their own hands.

The Patriots look to get back on track with what would be a statement win over the Bills on Sunday at Gillette Stadium.