If you bet the “Under” in the Boston Red Sox and Seattle Mariners game Thursday night, I really feel for you. The run total was 9 and the two teams were tied 3-3 heading into extra innings.
Seattle took a 4-3 lead on Sam Haggerty’s RBI double in the tenth, then Mitch Haniger blasted a three-run homer over the center field wall. It gave the M’s a 7-3 lead and crushed the souls of “Under 9” bettors everywhere.
“That’s one of the worst beats you’ll ever see,” one Las Vegas bookmaker texted me after Haniger’s blast. “So many things had to go wrong for the ‘Under’ to lose. It was 3-2 after seven. Then Seattle ties it in the eighth and scores four in the tenth. That’s (bleeping) brutal!”
Friday night’s matchup at Fenway Park features a pair of southpaws on the hill — Martin Perez (0-0, 5.93 ERA) and Yusei Kikuchi (0-0, 4.74). While their statistics and metrics might not invoke supreme confidence in “Under” bettors, the betting market always tells a story.
Oddsmakers opened Friday’s total at O/U 9.5 flat and respected money immediately showed for the “Under.” The hooks have disappeared at most sportsbooks as the screen is currently showing mostly 9o-115. DraftKings, FanDuel and William Hill still have 9.5u-120 available. Always be shopping.
Seattle is one of the worst teams in baseball against left-handed pitchers. The Mariners rank 29th out of 30 with a .183 batting average against southpaws and their .291 on-base percentage is far from incredible. This bodes well for Perez, who had to face the Chicago White Sox and Minnesota Twins in his last two outings. Those teams feast on lefties, but Seattle does not.
Kikuchi has only faced the Red Sox once in his career and he allowed two runs over six innings. Boston hitters don’t have a ton of familiarity with the Seattle lefty, although Xander Bogaerts and J.D. Martinez did take him deep.
Boston has gone “Under” in four of its last six games and that’s counting an extremely lucky “Over” in Thursday night’s game. I’m banking on Perez and Kikuchi to miss enough barrels and establish fastball command to keep these offenses at bay.
SEA/BOS Under 9.5 runs -120
RECORD: (30-24, +4.1)
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