NFL Odds: Josh Allen Among Four Props To Consider For Week 3

There are a pair of enticing plays for 'Thursday Night Football,' too

by

September 22

If you play in NFL survivor leagues, you know how tough the schedule is when it comes to picking winners. The market has moved each favored team down to no more than a touchdown in Week 3, after five teams were favored by a touchdown or more last week. Betting props are no different, having just two weeks of data and film to work off.

Still, I found an edge with a few plays for “Thursday Night Football” and the weekend matchups.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns (-4.5)
Jacoby Brissett Over 26.5 pass attempts (-114)
It may not be the most exciting “Thursday Night Football” game but it is a divisional matchup nonetheless, which keeps things interesting. Jacoby Brissett is now 1-1 as the Browns starter as Deshaun Watson remains sidelined. Heading into Week 3, Cleveland opened as a 3-point favorite and have been bet up to -4.5. Game script would tell you they won’t be the ones playing catchup, but I like my chances of Brissett using his arm with the Steelers having given up the third-most passing yards through the first two weeks, in addition to how tough the Steelers front seven is. Brissett finished with 34 passing attempts against the Carolina Panthers in Week 1 and 229 yards on 27 attempts in a Week 2 loss to the New York Jets. I don’t think either team should be laying four at this point, and I could see the Steelers winning this one, so I’m expecting a lot of back and forth Thursday night.

Pat Freirmuth Over 3.5 catches (-129)
Steelers tight end Pat Freirmuth has the second-most targets (17) on the team behind Diontae Johnson (22) and the third-most targets of all tight ends. I like this matchup not only with the game script favoring the Browns (as much as I might not agree with it), but also knowing Trubisky will need to throw the ball as the Browns have allowed the fourth-fewest rush yards so far this season. The Browns have surrendered an average of seven targets and four and a half catches to tight ends per game through two weeks, so Freirmuth should get four or more in this matchup.

Houston Texans at Chicago Bears (-2.5)
Damien Pierce Over 58.5 yards (-115)
Texans rookie running back Damien Pierce is already proving he’s one of the best backs from his class, leading all rookie backs in yards after contact last week. After a quiet Week 1, he put up 69 yards against the Denver Broncos, who have allowed the fifth-fewest rushing yards so far. He would have likely had more if the offense was able to pick up more first downs in the 16-9 loss. I think this Week 3 matchup will be a closer one than the last, and the Texans should take advantage of the Bears weakness on defense. Head coach Lovie Smith has said he is looking to get Pierce more involved and that he needs to get more touches. If anyone has the power to do that, it’s the head coach. It’s safe to expect a big week from Pierce.

(-5.5) Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins
Josh Allen Over 274.5 (-114)
The Bills have fulfilled their “best team in football” title through the first two weeks and will try to continue that in Week 3 against an exciting Miami offense. Josh Allen has averaged 307 passing yards through two games, going over this prop by 22.5 in the 31-10 win over the Rams and by 42.5 in a Week 2 41-7 blowout over the Titans. If he reached this number in games where they even let the backup quarterback finish the job, he should get over this in a game that should be much closer. The line opened with Buffalo as a 4-point favorite and the line has moved to -6. With the line not pushing past six, clearly bookmakers and the public believe this will be a tough matchup for Allen and company. Take the over.

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