The NFL playoffs are here, and bettors are already diving into the wild-card round slate in hopes of finding an edge with their picks.
Considering a meaningless and seemingly overlooked NFL regular-season game is going to have incredibly sharp lines, trying to find value in the postseason is even more difficult.
There is plenty of time to formulate opinions and make decisions about where you want to get your action down. But the board is always changing, and there are some early-week offerings that might not be around once kickoff gets here.
Based on the opening lines, though, here’s a two-team, 6-point teaser with a -120 payout at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Jacksonville Jaguars (+1 to +7) over Los Angeles Chargers
You could at least make the argument the Jaguars are the better team, though oddsmakers certainly don’t agree. LA opened as 2.5-point favorites, though that number was quickly bet down. Admittedly, you’re missing out on the 1.5 that would have gone through the key numbers of three and seven with the Jags, but there could still be some value here getting through the field goal, especially if the public continues to fire on Jacksonville. The Jaguars were the slightly better team by DVOA this season, and they enter the playoffs with as much momentum as any other NFL team. Jacksonville won five straight to steal the AFC South away from Tennessee.
The defense is a concern, but the Jags allowed just 22 combined points over the last three games. LA’s offense is certainly a step up (over the Jets, Texans and Joshua Dobbs-led Titans), but the Mike Williams injury looms large. The Chargers receiver had to be helped to the team bus after suffering a back injury Sunday. That could mean the Jags once again avoid the two-headed monster of Williams and Keenan Allen, as they did in a 38-10 Week 3 rout of the Chargers in LA. You also have to give Doug Pederson and the Jags the coaching advantage here.
Cincinnati Bengals (-6.5 to -0.5) over Baltimore Ravens
There’s plenty of familiarity between these two AFC North rivals who are meeting for the third time this season and the second time in as many weeks. The Bengals rolled to a 27-16 home win Sunday to avoid the coin-flip scenario and will host once again in the wild-card round. While there might be some trepidation about taking the Bengals to cover a touchdown-plus against a team that knows them inside and out, getting this down to a half-point makes it a virtual pick ’em. Under those circumstances, it’s far more palatable. Cincinnati, after all, is +850 to win the Super Bowl, while Baltimore is a 35-1 long shot.
This is a game the Bengals should win, and if Lamar Jackson can’t play, they should do so with relative ease. The tease, though, gives some Jackson insurance if he makes his first appearance since Week 13. Jackson hasn’t been overly efficient against the Bengals in recent games, completing just 53% of his passes and averaging 6.1 yards per attempt in his last three games against Cincinnati.
