Just like that, the major season for men’s golf is just about over, with The Open Championship on tap this week at Royal Liverpool Golf Club.
The British rota returns to Hoylake for the first time since 2014 when Rory McIlroy won the third major of his then-young career. This is also the place where Tiger Woods won in 2006, famously hitting anything but driver off the tee just about the entire week.
The course has seen some changes over the years. The most notable is a complete revamp of the par-3 17th hole. Weather will be a major factor, as it always is at The Open. In 2006, the course looked white due to the burned-out grass. There was a lot more green in 2014 when McIlroy took home the Claret Jug.
Early indications are it will play closer to 2014 than 2006 this time around, which could favor the bombers if the shorter guys can’t get run off the tee. Either way, the fairways are tight by Open standards, and imagination will be rewarded around the greens as it typically is.
And, as always, things can change in a heartbeat if the weather kicks up off the water and flips the tournament on its head.
Accounting for all those factors, here are our power rankings for The Open Championship at Royal Liverpool.
(Betting odds via FanDuel Sportsbook)
11. Patrick Cantlay (+2200)/Xander Schauffele (+2500)
Sorry, guys, but you’re tied at the hip until further notice. Both are elite golfers and technically have the skill to win this week. And they’re both just kind of there. Neither would be surprising though neither inspires much feeling or emotion at all.
10. Collin Morikawa (+3300)
The 2021 Open champion, Morikawa is the sort of ball-striker who could hit the middle of every green and wait out the rest of the field. If the weather is benign, you have to like his chances even more. Morikawa is just as likely to miss the cut as he is to win, but he’s so good off the tee and in the fairway that the path to victory is easy to see.
9. Jordan Spieth (+3000)
No Texan has ever felt more at home in Europe than Spieth. The 29-year-old is a former Open champion (2017) and has five top-10 finishes. He finished second in 2021 and tied for eighth last year. If he’s anything resembling straight off the tee, his imagination and ability to create shots out of seemingly nothing is unmatched by the rest of the field.
8. Tommy Fleetwood (+2800)
He’s banging on the door, although that’s kind of the story of Fleetwood’s career. He logged three top-10 finishes in his last four Tour starts, including a top-five finish at the U.S. Open. Obviously, he’s comfortable playing in England, too.
7. Tyrrell Hatton (+2500)
Hatton’s situation is similar to Fleetwood’s. Does he have the temperament to win a major? He certainly has the game. You’d like a little more betting value than 25-1, but his seven top-10 finishes in 2023 certainly stand out. There are also some theories that this week could see a correlation to golf in Florida, where Hatton has played well, too.
6. Jon Rahm (+1200)
He has spent the better part of the last three years as one of the three best players in the world, so we don’t want to sleep on him too much. Rahm just hasn’t played much lately, and when he did, it wasn’t especially impressive. He’s been all over the place off the tee. Is he hurt? He could certainly put it all together for a week, though, and it wouldn’t be surprising.
5. Rickie Fowler (+2500)
It doesn’t hurt the case that he finished second here at Royal Liverpool in 2014. What’s crazy is that he might be coming in with better form than he did back then, a testament to the complete turnaround for his game. Fowler’s approach game is dialed, and he looks even better if the lack of runout leads to more long irons from the fairway.
4. Cameron Smith (+1800)
There’s volatility with Smith. With the internal OB and things of that nature, the winner probably needs to be straighter off the tee than Smith, who can spray it. It’s hard to argue with his recent results, though. He won LIV London earlier this month and hasn’t finished worse than 12th on LIV since early April. He also mixed in a top-10 finish at the PGA and a fourth-place showing at the U.S. Open. Smith certainly has the world-class short game often needed to win a links tournament, as he demonstrated last year en route to becoming the champion golfer of the year.
3. Brooks Koepka (+1800)
If players have to pull driver all weekend, there might not be anyone better than Koepka. He’s certainly long enough, and he’s remarkably straight for someone who does bomb it. His major record is stupendous, of course, and while he has yet to tackle an Open (he missed the cut last year), he has four top-10 finishes since 2017. His mental toughness is second to none, which could be his secret weapon if the elements are a factor.
2. Rory McIlroy (+700)
He obviously comes in with fine form after winning the Scottish Open last week. McIlroy won the 2014 Open here. He almost won the Open last year. His game suits this place well, and there might not be anyone in the field who benefits more than him if the course plays softer than expected. The only argument against McIlroy is he hasn’t won a major in about a decade, though it just feels like a formality at this point.
1. Scottie Scheffler (+650)
Scheffler is on an absolutely obscene run that is downright historic — even without actually, you know, winning. He hasn’t finished worse than fifth place since April, and his worst major finish since Brookline last year is a T-21 at St. Andrews in 2022. His tee-to-green has been legendary, but the putter is the reason he hasn’t been able to lift a trophy this summer. Putting doesn’t figure to be a massive issue at Hoylake, so Scheffler winning wouldn’t be slightly surprising.
