NFL Week 17 Picks: New Year’s Weekend Giving Off Big-Time Playoff Vibes

Break out the party hats. It’s New Year’s weekend in the NFL.

Several teams will look to jumpstart their festivities by clinching a playoff berth in Week 17. For others, the midnight champagne will be more about drowning the sorrows of a lost 2023 season.

Fortunately, we won’t need to wait until New Year’s Eve for meaningful football, as the Dallas Cowboys host the Detroit Lions on Saturday night in what could be an eventual playoff preview. The Lions already clinched the NFC North and still could land the No. 1 seed, whereas the Cowboys punched their ticket to the postseason but remain in the mix for the NFC East crown.

On Sunday, the AFC’s top two seeds — the Baltimore Ravens and Miami Dolphins — will battle in the Charm City. AFC Championship Game preview, anyone?

The Ravens are coming off a convincing Christmas Day win over the San Francisco 49ers in Week 16, while the Dolphins took down the aforementioned Cowboys on Christmas Eve with a last-second field goal. Baltimore can clinch the AFC’s No. 1 seed with a win. Miami can clinch the AFC East title with a victory.

All in all, it should be an entertaining weekend to close out the year. And NESN.com’s Mike Cole and Ricky Doyle were able to shake off the holiday malaise long enough to offer their against-the-spread picks for every game.

First, check out this week’s episode of “The Spread,” NESN’s football picks podcast, for their best bets of the week.

Here’s how they fared with their full-slate ATS picks in Week 16.

And now, we’re on to Week 17 below.

THURSDAY, DEC. 28
New York Jets at (-7.5) Cleveland Browns, 8:15 p.m. ET
Mike: Jets.
Ricky: Jets.

The Browns’ defense is a different beast at home and the Jets are starting Trevor Siemian at quarterback. Woof. But Joe Flacco’s willingness to sling the bacon could backfire against an elite Jets secondary, to the point where New York sneaks within the number now that it’s jumped up over a touchdown. –RD

SATURDAY, DEC. 30
Detroit Lions at (-5.5) Dallas Cowboys, 8:15 p.m. ET
Mike: Cowboys.
Ricky: Cowboys.

Points. Points. Points. The total sat at 53 as of Thursday afternoon, which suggests we’re in for a Texas shootout. Dallas’ defense at least brings big-play ability to the table, though, whereas Detroit’s D looks totally incapable of stopping anyone right now. –RD

SUNDAY, DEC. 31
Miami Dolphins at (-3) Baltimore Ravens, 1 p.m. ET
Mike: Dolphins.
Ricky: Dolphins.

Maybe the Ravens really are that good? Still, this is the height of Baltimore’s market, presenting an opportunity to sell high against an opponent that, at the end of the day, might be on equal footing. Keep in mind: The Ravens benefitted from several uncharacteristic 49ers mistakes Monday night and now travel back across the country on a short week. –RD

New England Patriots at (-13) Buffalo Bills, 1 p.m. ET
Mike: Patriots.
Ricky: Patriots.

Thought for sure I’d end up on the other side of this, with the Patriots coming off a rare win and the Bills positioned well to bounce back at home after a shaky effort against the Chargers in Los Angeles. But the number is just too high. Buffalo has leaned more on its rushing attack in recent weeks and that plays right into New England’s defensive strengths. –RD

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Atlanta Falcons at (-3) Chicago Bears, 1 p.m. ET
Mike: Falcons.
Ricky: Bears.

Expect the Falcons’ offense to sputter on the road against a Bears defense that’s very good at stopping the run. Justin Fields, meanwhile, could find success with his legs against Atlanta. –RD

Tennessee Titans at (-5) Houston Texans, 1 p.m. ET
Mike: Texans.
Ricky: Titans.

This is priced as if C.J. Stroud will return for Houston. Still, we’re talking about a rookie QB coming back from a concussion against a divisional opponent that typically thrives as an underdog. –RD

Las Vegas Raiders at (-3.5) Indianapolis Colts, 1 p.m. ET
Mike: Raiders.
Ricky: Raiders.

Credit to Las Vegas’ defense, which has been awesome since Antonio Pierce took over for Josh McDaniels. The touchdowns on that side of the ball don’t feel sustainable, but Indianapolis also needs fluky plays to be successful. Might as well take the points and hope for the best. –RD

Carolina Panthers at (-6.5) Jacksonville Jaguars, 1 p.m. ET
Mike: Jaguars.
Ricky: Jaguars.

I’ve been out on the Jaguars since before it was cool. They’re just not that good, especially on defense. But something feels off about this number — like we’re being sucked into backing the NFL’s worst team. –RD

(-5.5) Los Angeles Rams at New York Giants, 1 p.m. ET
Mike: Giants.
Ricky: Giants.

The Giants are turning back to Tyrod Taylor at quarterback in Week 17, which raises New York’s floor at the expense of lowering its ceiling. That could be enough for an ugly cover at home against a Rams offense that’s been firing on all cylinders since Los Angeles’ Week 10 bye. –RD

Arizona Cardinals at (-10.5) Philadelphia Eagles, 1 p.m. ET
Mike: Cardinals.
Ricky: Eagles.

We keep waiting for that week when everything comes together for Philadelphia. A home game against the Giants on Christmas Day felt like the perfect opportunity, yet the Eagles failed to cover. Maybe this is the week? –RD

New Orleans Saints at (-2.5) Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 1 p.m. ET
Mike: Bucs.
Ricky: Bucs.

Tampa Bay’s surprising success largely has come in an underdog role (8-3 ATS). So, it’s OK if you’re not rushing to the window to back the Bucs now that they’re laying points against a divisional opponent. But ask yourself this: What have the Saints accomplished? They beat the two-win Panthers twice, and their other five wins came against teams with a combined 28-47 record. –RD

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(-13) San Francisco 49ers at Washington Commanders, 1 p.m. ET
Mike: 49ers.
Ricky: Commanders.

The 49ers still moved the ball against the Ravens despite last week’s loss. And they won’t commit five turnovers again. The problem is Jacoby Brissett is capable of managing the game in such a way that Washington hangs around for far too long. –RD

Pittsburgh Steelers at (-3.5) Seattle Seahawks, 4:05 p.m. ET
Mike: Steelers.
Ricky: Seahawks.

Mason Rudolph will start at quarterback for the Steelers. That’s fine on Christmas weekend (see what we did there?), but expect a crash landing for Pittsburgh’s sleigh in Week 17. The Steelers are too reliant on splash plays defensively and the Seahawks generally take care of the football. –RD

Cincinnati Bengals at (-7) Kansas City Chiefs, 4:25 p.m. ET
Mike: Chiefs.
Ricky: Chiefs.

Kansas City’s offense is disjointed — a crazy statement for a unit led by Patrick Mahomes — but its defense is legit. And for as good as Jake Browning initially looked upon replacing the injured Joe Burrow, last week’s awful performance in Pittsburgh was the type of thing that can send the wheels flying in every direction and remind everyone why there’s often a shelf life to the early success of backup QBs. –RD

Los Angeles Chargers at (-3.5) Denver Broncos, 4:25 p.m. ET
Mike: Broncos.
Ricky: Broncos.

This number opened at Denver -6 and since dropped with Jarrett Stidham starting in place of Russell Wilson. That’s an overreaction against a Chargers team that showed fight last week but otherwise is dead in the water. –RD

Green Bay Packers at (-2) Minnesota Vikings, 8:20 p.m. ET
Mike: Packers.
Ricky: Packers.

Been on the Jordan Love train all season. Not jumping off now. The Vikings are way too banged up offensively. –RD