Week 10 NFL Picks Banking on Randy Moss Catching Touchdown in Titans Debut


November 12, 2010

Week 10 NFL Picks Banking on Randy Moss Catching Touchdown in Titans Debut There’s always that one week that kills you. That one week where four or five games come down to the wire, but you know you’re going to lose every one of them.

For me, that was last week. And I’m sure I’m not alone.

The Jets were four-point favorites, and they won by three. The Chiefs were 2.5-point underdogs, and they lost by three. Eagles were three-point favorites and won by — you guessed it — two points, thanks to an egregious “Touching The Peyton Manning” penalty by Trent Cole.

Fortunately, the Packers embarassed the Cowboys and the Steelers just barely took care of business on Monday night, ending the week on a positive note.

It’s hard, though, to look at NFL picks this week and think they require anything but pure luck.

(Home team in caps.)

ATLANTA (-1) over Baltimore
What a way to kick off football on Thursdays, eh?

Michael Turner is on an absolute roll, topping 100 yards in three of his last four games. He’ll be getting his yards against Baltimore’s 13th-ranked run defense, and the Falcons have had no problems at home this year with a 4-0 record, outscoring opponents 123-74.

Detroit (+3) over BUFFALO
I know Matthew Stafford might be done for the year, but come on. You look at the sheet, you see it has Buffalo in the favorites column, and you automatically pick the other team. That’s simply the rule, whether that other team is the Detroit Lions or the junior high B squad.

CHICAGO (+1) over Minnesota
You can analyze these Vikings all you want, but frankly, you just can’t know what you’re going to get. Plus, you have to wonder if a team with such apparent disrespect of the head coach can string together two wins in a row. That’s only amplified by the 0-4 road record.

CLEVELAND (+3) over New York Jets
I have a feeling this is going to be a trendy pick, but so be it. The Jets looked lethargic on the road against a lesser opponent last week, yet they were saved by that moronic late hit by Julian Peterson. The Browns aren’t necessarily as good as the team that beat the Saints and Patriots by a combined 33 points, but they’re good enough to compete with a Jets team that seems hungry for a loss.

Oh, and Braylon Edwards‘ urge to teach Cleveland how to Dougie might be at least a minor distraction.

INDIANAPOLIS (-7) over Cincinnati
The way Chad Ochocinco was walking around the field, screaming at his teammates on Monday night, you would have thought he was Tom Brady.

Indy, meanwhile, looks like a completely different team at home, with Manning able to score at will. Facing a middle-of-the-road Cincy passing defense on a short week likely has Tom Moore very excited but still acting very cool all the time.

Ridiculous Quote From Last Week’s Picks: “I just hope, after the Bengals implode on Monday night, that Terrell Owens and Chad Ochocinco aren’t so bummed out that they can’t film The T.Ocho Show on Tuesday night.”

Note: Based on Owens’ 10 catches, 141 yards, two touchdowns and one ridiculous outfit during his postgame news conference, he wasn’t bummed out at all. Ochocinco, on the other hand, had to call Jesse Jackson for some advice. Here’s hoping Jackson told him to shut up.

Tennessee (-1) over MIAMI
Fact: Randy Moss will score a touchdown. (He scored in his career debut with the Vikings, team debuts with the Raiders and Patriots and in his reunion game with the Vikings , so why not?)

Fact: Chad Pennington will throw an awful interception.

Question: What’s with all these one-point spreads?

TAMPA BAY (-6.5) over Carolina
Matt Moore
, Thomas Davis and Dan Connor head to IR, Jonathan Stewart is questionable after sustaining a concussion, and DeAngelo Williams, who’s been terrible anyway, likely won’t play on his bum foot.

We all feel for you, John Fox.

RQFLWP: “[The Saints] don’t seem to be able to put together a solid 60-minute effort, let alone string together consecutive seven-plus-point victories.”

Note: The Saints briefly trailed 3-0 before scoring 34 unanswered points. I told you they wouldn’t be great for all 60 minutes.

JACKSONVILLE (-2) over Houston
How do the Jaguars have four wins with just 181 yards per game on offense? Peyton Hillis had more yards than that himself last week.

Unfortunately for the Texans, they rank dead-last in pass defense, which should at least give the rejuvenated David Garrard a chance to light up that secondary. Unfortunately for people of Texas, northern Florida and southern Georgia, they’ll have to watch this game on their television sets.

Kansas City (-1) over DENVER
For a long time, Jermaine O’Neal was the proud owner of the most ridiculous contract in sports (seven years, $126 million). That title may now belong to Matt Cassel.

With a 58.4 percent completion rate, 1,400 yards, 12 touchdowns and four interceptions, Cassel isn’t horrible. His six-year, $62.7 million contract, however, is a bit ludicrous.

I’ve said all year that the Chiefs look good just about every week, and I’ll now add that the Broncos look bad just as often.

Since they were 2-2 through four weeks, the Broncos have been outscored 138-67. That included the 59-14 blowout at the hands of the Raiders, and standard NFL procedure dictates that you can’t pick a team that lost by 45 points to the Raiders until at least eight weeks have passed.

Dallas (+14) over NEW YORK GIANTS
So … this spread was at 11, and then Wade Phillips was fired, and it grew to 14? Are you saying that Wade Phillips made the Cowboys a better team?

In any case, the Giants concern me because they’re due for a major letdown. Not a “holy-crap-we-just-lost-to-the-Cowoys-at-home” letdown, but more like a “wow-that-took-a-LawrenceTynes-field-goal-to-win” letdown. Remember, though they’ve looked like worldbeaters recently, this is the same Giants team that came undone twice in the first few weeks of the season, throwing around excuses like “we had to show up to the stadium too early for a night game.” That kind of inconsistency doesn’t just disappear immediately.

(Fun fact: Hakeen Nicks has more points (54) than Tynes (52). The more you know.)

ARIZONA (-3) over Seattle
Just when you think you love the NFL, the NFC West shows up and spoils all the fun.

I don’t even know what to say about this game. I literally don’t. I’ll just note that the Seahawks looked historically bad last week and that they look horrendous on the road (that odd win in Chicago notwithstanding).

St. Louis (+6) over SAN FRANCISCO
What was that I was saying about the NFC West?

Rather than try to predict what’s going to happen in this game (hint: it will be boring), I’ll use this time to dump a cold bucket of water on the Sam Bradford lovers. Yes, the kid looks good, and yes, he’s likely going to stick around in this league, but chill out, everybody. He barely averages 200 yards per game, he’s got 11 touchdowns to eight interceptions and he’s been sacked 17 times.

Yet, if Matt Moore could throw for 300 yards against the San Francisco defense a few weeks ago, Bradford should be just fine this weekend. Just hold off on the Hall of Fame induction ceremony.

New England (+4.5) over PITTSBURGH
You just have to like the Patriots getting points. If there’s a Patriots team that opponents should fear, it’s a Patriots team that’s an underdog.

They were dogs once this year (Week 7 against San Diego), a game they won outright, and (take this for what it’s worth) the underdog in Pats-Steelers meetings is 8-2 against the spread in the last eight matchups. The Patriots are also 7-2 against the spread in their last nine games against Pittsburgh. (Thanks for your ridiculous, mostly inane statistics, Covers.com! They can make anything justifiable!)

On a more real note, injuries to Max Starks (IR) and Chris Kemoeatu (questionable) will cause a lot of problems for Rashard Mendenhall and Ben Roethlisberger.

RQFLWP: “And after the Browns pulled out every trick in the book against the Saints, it’ll be tough for them to surprise the Patriots this weekend. Plus, any time you’ve got a rookie quarterback going up against a Bill Belichick defense, it generally doesn’t end well for the rookie.”

Note: This actually is perhaps the most wrong anyone’s ever been. The Browns had plenty of tricks left (never underestimate that fiery little offensive coordinator), Tom Brady looked like a rookie and Colt McCoy looked like Tom Brady.

It’s quotes like these that are why the RQFLWP exist in the first place.

Philadelphia (-3) over WASHINGTON
That Michael Vick guy is good. That Donovan McNabb guy? Not so much.

Last week: 5-7-1
Season: 63-63-4

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