The 30-year-old righty has fans concerned about the back end of the rotation in a season that the team looks to be a favorite to win the World Series. Though the lineup looks to be stacked and the rotation boasts some potentially dominant starters, Daisuke has fans worrying. That's not completely without reason, of course, but the fact that some are fretting over the fifth starter should actually work to calm most people's concerns.
If Red Sox fans want to know what having real concerns about your rotation entails, they should just look at the New York Yankees. Each day, Yankees reporters file stories that say A.J. Burnett is getting rocked in a spring training game, that Ivan Nova is in good shape to earn a spot in the rotation, or that Bartolo Colon (Bartolo Colon!) is in a legitimate competition for a starting pitching job with the richest team in baseball. That is a pitching problem. With Daisuke, it's not nearly as bad.
Sure, fans may have finally reached the breaking point with Matsuzaka in the past year or two. Long innings, never-ending nibbling on the corners and an inability to last deep into games has drained just about every fan of confidence when Matsuzaka ascends the mound. Yet, to write off his 2011 season before it even begins would be unwise.
Consider that, after a rough start to the spring, Matsuzaka strung together 10 2/3 scoreless innings before surrendering two runs to the Cardinals on Sunday. It's spring training, yes, but it's at least an indication that Matsuzaka is getting better as the season approaches, something that, due to the World Baseball Classic in '09 and injuries in '10, wasn't the case the past two springs.
"Looks like he's starting to get geared up," manager Terry Francona said after Sunday's start.
This year, at least, it's worth banking on the potential success of Daisuke Matsuzaka, rather than burying him because of his potential to fail. Being the fifth stater in a staff that has two capable bullpen arms capable of filling any gaps, the Red Sox can certainly afford the gamble.
The fifth starter in 2004 was Bronson Arroyo, who went 10-9 with a 4.03 ERA. The fourth starter was Derek Lowe, who went 14-12 with a 5.42 ERA. The third starter was Tim Wakefield, and he was far from spectacular with a 12-10 record and 4.87 ERA. We know how that season ended.
In '07, the fifth starter for much of the season was Julian Tavarez, who wasn't really a starter at all. He went 7-11 with a 5.15 ERA (6-11 with a 5.22 ERA as a starter) and pitched an average of just under 5 1/3 innings per start. The Red Sox finished the season tied for most wins in the league.
A fifth starter cannot make or break a season, as recent history for the Red Sox clearly shows.
There's also the numbers, however flawed or misleading they can be, that say Daisuke can win 18 games in a season. You could argue that he was aided by run support (six-plus runs were scored in 44.8 percent of his starts in '08) and you could argue that he averaged just over 5 2/3 innings per start, but you can't argue that his 18-3 record and 2.90 ERA never happened. They did, and they could happen again.
Is Matsuzaka as good as those 2008 numbers? Probably not, but he's also not necessarily as bad as his numbers in '09 and '10 say he is. Here's what you have with Daisuke.
2007-08: 33-15, 3.72 ERA, 1.324 WHIP, 174 BBs, 355 SOs, 372 1/2 IP, 61 starts
2009-10: 13-12, 4.99 ERA, 1.512 WHIP, 104 BBs, 187 SOs, 213 IP, 37 starts
Put it all together, and you've got an average of a 12-7 record, 4.18 ERA, 1.392 WHIP and a nearly 2-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio over about 25 starts. That would be as good or better than Arroyo in '04, and it would be much better than Tavarez in '07. It would be better than the four-man combination that made up the Yankees' fifth starter in '09 and better than the Joe Blanton–Adam Eaton combo at the back end of the Phillies' rotation in 2008.
The Red Sox can win a World Series without Matsuzaka being great, but having a fifth starter who can be great gives them a leg up on the competition.
It's snowing in Boston on the first full day of spring, but it's still sunny down in Florida. Why not leave the door open for a little bit of optimism?
