The New England Patriots have been to three straight Super Bowls, winning two, and figure to have one of the NFL’s easiest schedules again this season by virtue of playing in the AFC East.
But they don’t own the best Super Bowl LIV odds, according to ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI), a prediction system that takes into account several factors.
That honor instead belongs to the Kansas City Chiefs, who fell to the Patriots in last season’s AFC Championship Game but have a 16 percent chance of hoisting the Lombardi Trophy this season.
Here’s more from ESPN.com about the FPI:
FPI is our prediction model for the NFL. Preseason ratings are based on each team’s Las Vegas win total; last season’s performance on offense, defense and special teams; the number of returning starters; coaching staff changes; and starting and backup quarterbacks.
The New Orleans Saints own the second-best chance of winning Super LIV at 15 percent, according to ESPN’s FPI. The Patriots and their Super Bowl LIII opponent, the Los Angeles Rams, are tied for third-best, each with a 12 percent chance of being the last team standing.
After that, there’s a significant drop-off: the Indianapolis Colts own the fourth-best chance of winning Super Bowl LIV, according to ESPN’s FPI. So basically, as ESPN.com states, it’s the four conference championship teams from last season, and then everyone else.
Here are the most likely Super Bowl LIV matchups, per ESPN’s FPI:
New Orleans Saints vs. Kansas City Chiefs — 7 percent
New Orleans Saints vs. New England Patriots — 6 percent
Los Angeles Rams vs. Kansas City Chiefs — 6 percent
Los Angeles Rams vs. New England Patriots — 5 percent
New Orleans Saints vs. Indianapolis Colts — 3 percent
Preseason odds obviously mean very little, but it’s no surprise to see the Patriots — still led by Bill Belichick and Tom Brady — again highly regarded before the 2019 NFL campaign kicks off.
