The New England Patriots will travel to Kansas City this weekend to take on the defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs.
THE DETAILS
Time: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
Location: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, Mo.
TV: CBS
THE ODDS
The Patriots entered the weekend as seven-point road underdogs.
How rare is it for a New England opponent to be favored by a touchdown or more? As ESPN’s Mike Reiss noted this week, this is just the third time that’s happened since Super Bowl XXXVI, when the Patriots beat the St. Louis Rams as 14-point ‘dogs.
The two others: the 2016 opener against the Arizona Cardinals (Jimmy Garoppolo’s first start) and the 2009 finale against the Houston Texans (the Wes Welker torn ACL game).
Patriots coach Bill Belichick referred to the Chiefs as a pseudo divisional opponent this week. These teams have faced each other four times over the last three seasons, with each winning two.
The Patriots took their first two matchups against Patrick Mahomes — 43-40 in the 2018 regular season and 37-31 in overtime in the 2018 AFC Championship Game — but the Chiefs quarterback prevailed in their most recent clash, winning 23-16 at Gillette Stadium last December.
The 23 points New England allowed in that games — just three of which came in the second half — are tied for the second-fewest Kansas City has scored in any Mahomes start.
Can the Patriots replicate that success with a defense that had to replace roughly half of its 2019 starters? That’s the big question this week.
LAST WEEK
The 2-1 Patriots bounced back from their Week 2 loss in Seattle by dispatching the Las Vegas Raiders 36-20.
Led by Rex Burkhead (three touchdowns, 98 yards from scrimmage) and Sony Michel (nine carries, 117 yards), New England racked up 250 rushing yards, propelling them to a comfortable win despite a lackluster passing performance from quarterback Cam Newton.
The 3-0 Chiefs made an emphatic statement on “Monday Night Football,” dump-trucking the Baltimore Ravens on the road in a 34-20 victory. Mahomes threw for four touchdowns and ran for another, and Kansas City’s defense held last year’s NFL MVP, Lamar Jackson, to 97 passing yards and sacked him four times.
After needing overtime to beat the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 2, it was an impressive response from the reigning champs.
INJURY REPORT
The Patriots listed five players as questionable for Sunday:
DT Adam Butler (shoulder)
WR Julian Edelman (knee)
RB Sony Michel (quad)
G Shaq Mason (calf)
OT Isaiah Wynn (calf)
All five were limited in practice Friday.
Special teamer Cody Davis has been ruled out with a rib injury.
Running back Damien Harris and wide receiver/punt returner Gunner Olszewski both participated in all three practices this week after spending the first three weeks of the season on injured reserve.
It remains to be seen whether either will be activated to ahead of Sunday’s game. The decision on Harris could depend on Michel’s status.
If they are, expect that announcement to come Saturday afternoon. The Patriots entered the weekend with one open spot on their 53-man roster.
Center David Andrews and linebacker Josh Uche cannot return from IR until Week 6 at the earliest.
The Chiefs are largely healthy entering this highly anticipated AFC clash, but the one name on their injury report is a notable one. Standout defensive tackle Chris Jones is listed as questionable with a groin injury.
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Cam Newton, Patriots quarterback
Last week was the shakiest of Newton’s three Patriots outings to date. He threw one ghastly interception, forced two passes into triple coverage to Julian Edelman, missed an open N’Keal Harry for what should have been a touchdown and wasn’t much of a factor in the run game.
Of course, the Patriots won regardless, and Newton did come through late with a 27-yard strike to Harry and a key 21-yard scramble on their final possession. But he’ll be looking for a bounce-back performance against a KC defense that has yet to allow more than 20 points in a game this season.
The Chiefs have been solid against the pass this season (fourth in yards allowed per game, 11th in yards allowed per attempt, fifth in DVOA) but soft against the run (27th, 28th, 30th).
Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs quarterback
Mahomes was masterful against the Ravens, completing 73.8 percent of his passes (31 of 42) and delivering touchdown passes to four different players, including expert-level strikes to Tyreek Hill:
… and Mecole Hardman:
Mahomes has thrown nine touchdown passes this season with zero interceptions. He doesn’t make many mistakes, and the Patriots are well-aware of his big-play ability. Mahomes has completed at least one pass of 45-plus yards in each of his three career games against New England.
Chase Winovich, Patriots outside linebacker
To blitz Mahomes is to invite disaster, as the Ravens learned last week:
With more coverage players needed to defend the Chiefs’ deep stable of offensive weapons, teams that succeed against KC are those that can generate pressure without bringing an extra pressure.
The spotlight this week will be Winovich, who’s been arguably the Patriots’ best defensive player through three games — and, according to several advanced metrics, one of the NFL’s top edge rushers. Winovich has generated 12 pressures this season, according to Pro Football Focus, twice as many as any other New England defender (Deatrich Wise is second with six).
He’ll face a Chiefs offensive line that has surrendered just two sacks all season and leads the NFL in sack rate against (1.65 percent).
Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Chiefs running back
One thing the Chiefs’ offense lacked when they visited Gillette last season was a viable running game. Damien Williams was hurt for that Week 14 matchup, so KC’s top back was a past-his-prime LeSean McCoy. McCoy managed just 39 yards on 11 carries, and the Chiefs averaged less than 3 yards per rushing attempt.
New England will face a far more formidable ground game this Sunday thanks to Edwards-Helaire, who’s looked like an Offensive Rookie of the Year front-runner through three games. The Chiefs’ top 2020 draft pick (32nd overall) ranks fourth in PFF’s “elusive rating” among backs with 25-plus carries and sixth in the league in rushing yards. He’s shown legit receiving chops, too, catching 11 passes on 14 targets for 102 yards over his last two games.
The Patriots’ defense has not been stout against the run this season, ranking 19th in rushing yards allowed per game, 21st in yards allowed per carry and 19th in run defense DVOA.
Kyle Dugger, Patriots safety
Last year, the Patriots used a combination of Devin McCourty and Patrick Chung to defend Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce. Who will handle those duties this year? How about Dugger, who’s seen significant defensive playing time in each of the last two games and held up well against Darren Waller last week? New England also could stick Joejuan Williams on the dangerous Kelce or rotate coverage assignments, as they did against Waller.
Williams is longer than Dugger, but the Patriots benched the former last Sunday after his second defensive holding penalty. Dugger played 16 coverage snaps against the Raiders — many of them against Waller — and wasn’t targeted.
Chris Jones, Chiefs defensive tackle
Jones ate third-string Patriots center James Ferentz alive in last year’s game, sacking Tom Brady once and pressuring him five times. The Patriots should be stronger up front this time around, but this premier D-tackle still will be a difficult matchup for Joe Thuney (who’s playing out of position at center), Mike Onwenu (who will be making his second career start at left guard) and a banged-up Mason.
Thuney and Onwenu both were excellent in their new roles against the Raiders. Jones had a banner Week 3, too, sacking Lamar Jackson twice and forcing two fumbles.
