We now know whom Boston Red Sox manager Alex Cora will send to battle against the Houston Astros in the 2021 American League Championship Series.
The Red Sox on Friday revealed their 26-man active roster for the ALCS, which will begin in Houston for Games 1 and 2 before shifting to Boston for Games 3 through 5. If necessary, the Astros will host Games 6 and 7 as the teams clash for the right to represent the AL in the World Series.
Boston’s roster for the ALCS isn’t too different from the group Cora deployed in the AL Division Series against the Tampa Bay Rays. The only tweaks reside in the bullpen: Matt Barnes and Austin Davis are out. Darwinzon Hernandez and Hirokazu Sawamura are in.
Here are some quick takeaways regarding the Red Sox’s roster changes ahead of Game 1, scheduled for Friday night (8:07 p.m. ET) at Minute Maid Park.
— Replacing Davis with Hernandez — a lefty-lefty swap — likely stems from the latter’s strikeout capability combined with their respective numbers against right-handed hitters.
Here are their stats this season:
Davis overall: 29 appearances (26 1/3 innings), 5.13 ERA, 4.50 FIP, 1.37 WHIP, 9.6 K/9, 4.1 BB/9, 1.4 HR/9
Hernandez overall: 48 appearances (40 innings), 3.38 ERA, 4.80 FIP, 1.50 WHIP, 12.2 K/9, 7.0 BB/9, 1.1 HR/9
Davis vs. LHH: .149 batting average against, .604 OPS against, 28.1% strikeout rate, 12.3% walk rate
Hernandez vs. LHH: .204 batting average against, .742 OPS against, 33.8% strikeout rate, 18.3% walk rate
Davis vs. RHH: .309 batting average against, .876 OPS against, 20% strikeout rate, 8.3% walk rate
Hernandez vs. RHH: .202 batting average against, .677 OPS against, 27% strikeout rate, 16.2% walk rate
Davis is better against lefties, but the Astros are nearly impossible to match up with, anyway. They can rake against anyone. And consider some of the right-handed batters the Red Sox will be dealing with throughout the series: Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Carlos Correa and Yuli Gurriel.
Hernandez’s issues with walks are concerning. You can’t be giving away free passes in October. But his swing-and-miss stuff is a potential asset against an Astros offense that had the lowest strikeout rate (19.4%) in Major League Baseball this season.
— Replacing Barnes with Sawamura — a righty-righty swap — speaks to how far the former has fallen since earning an All-Star selection as Boston’s closer earlier this season. And the move makes sense.
While it’s hard to trust either in a high-leverage spot given what we’ve seen from both in the second half, Sawamura’s ground ball rate (51.8%) and strand rate (82.8%) are better than Barnes’ numbers in those areas (41.7%, 73.4%).
Thus, Sawamura is more likely to induce a key double play, a trait that could come in handy against an Astros offense that ranked first in on-base percentage (.339). Houston grounded into the fourth-most double plays (136) this season.
For what it’s worth, Garrett Richards (whom Barnes replaced on the ALDS roster due to injury) was ineligible for the ALCS roster. He’s eligible to return for the World Series, should the Red Sox advance.
— The only other real debate was whether the Red Sox should include Jarren Duran, one of the fastest players in the organization, to use as a pinch-runner late in games. They instead chose to stick with Danny Santana, who’s capable of playing both the infield and outfield while providing good speed himself.
Of course, one alternative for maintaining speed, depth and versatility would have been to roster Duran (an outfielder) and Jonathan Araúz (an infielder) while trimming from the pitching side. That probably would have led to Sawamura, Hernandez or MartÃn Pérez being left off, but having an extra hurler to eat innings — even in mop-up duty in the event of a blowout — probably is more valuable.
