As we patiently await the start of NFL free agency, let’s close out the week by answering some of your New England Patriots mailbag questions.
@Duke0fHampshire
In regards to pick value and performance, how do we evaluate last years draft class? Can we learn anything from it to figure out what the Patriots will do this year?
Good question, and something I was actually thinking about earlier this week. Reviewing the Patriots’ recent draft classes, I noticed a shift in strategy last year.
Typically, Bill Belichick prefers prospects from more prominent college programs, at least in the earlier rounds. You see the Patriots draft tons of players from big-time schools like Alabama, Michigan and Georgia.
Over a four-year stretch from 2018-21, New England made 19 picks in Rounds 1-4, and all but one played for a Power Five program (SEC, Big 10, Big 12, Pac-12, ACC). The lone exception: 2020 second-rounder Kyle Dugger, who came from Division-II Lenoir-Rhyne.
But last year, the Patriots took a different approach. They scrapped that focus on pedigree and seemed to cast a wider draft net.
Of the six picks they made in the first four rounds, just two were on Power Five prospects. And even those were from programs that aren’t traditional powerhouses: Baylor (Tyquan Thornton) and Arizona State (Jack Jones). Rounding out that group were one selection from the American Athletic Conference (Houston’s Marcus Jones), one from Conference USA (Western Kentucky’s Bailey Zappe) and two from the lower-level FCS (Chattanooga’s Cole Strange and South Dakota State’s Pierre Strong).
It wasn’t until late in Day 3 that the Patriots finally grabbed a couple of players from name-brand programs, taking LSU guard Chasen Hines and Michigan tackle Andrew Stueber with their final two picks.
What does that mean for this year’s draft? Unclear.
It could have been a one-year anomaly, like when the Patriots used their top two picks in 2017 on guys from Youngstown State (Derek Rivers) and Troy (Antonio Garcia). They had a heavy Power Five emphasis in the years before that, too, going 15-for-16 from 2014-16. Or, they might have permanently altered some of their draft-day priorities.
Either way, it’s worth keeping in mind as we spent the next seven weeks debating whom New England should pick. And on the topic of last year’s draft class, now seems like a good time to grade the contributions New England got from each player in 2022:
LG Cole Strange (Round 1): B-
Strange didn’t silence the critics who believed the Patriots drafted him far too early, but he started every game as a rookie and got better as the season progressed. Give him a full offseason in an NFL strength and conditioning program and some real offensive line coaching — which he’ll get from Matt Patricia replacement Adrian Klemm — and it’s not hard to envision him making a Year 2 leap.
WR Tyquan Thornton (Round 2): C-
Thornton played a ton after missing the first four games with a broken collarbone, but his production was lacking. The skinny speedster topped 40 receiving yards just once and caught one or zero passes in eight of his 13 appearances. The Patriots will hope a year of experience and a cleaner overall offensive operation will help him become a more consistent weapon in 2023.
CB/PR/KR/WR Marcus Jones (Round 3): A
A true three-way player, Jones became the first player in the Super Bowl era to score a punt-return touchdown, a receiving touchdown and a pick-six in the same season. His punt-return prowess earned him first-team All-Pro honors. The biggest question moving forward is how the Patriots will balance Jones’ workload in all three phases. He’s said he wants his primary position to be defensive back, and he should open next season as New England’s top slot corner.
CB Jack Jones (Round 4): B
The Patriots’ other rookie Jones flashed Pro Bowl potential this season, looking at times like a worthy successor to J.C. Jackson. But then he got hurt in December and subsequently was hit with a team-imposed suspension, putting his status with the franchise in question. Jones has immense talent but has been suspended by each of the last three teams he’s played for.
RB Pierre Strong (Round 4): D+
Strong finally popped with two impressive performances in December, but overall, it was an underwhelming debut season from the South Dakota State product. He played just 51 snaps on offense despite the Patriots’ lack of depth at running back and made multiple costly errors on special teams, including a roughing-the-kicker penalty on Thanksgiving that set up Minnesota’s game-winning touchdown.
QB Bailey Zappe (Round 4): B+
For a player in his situation, Zappe played exceptionally well this season. He nearly pulled out an upset win in Green Bay after coming off the bench, then steered the Patriots to comfortable victories in each of his first two NFL starts, creating a whirlwind of fan-driven hype that’s still spinning five months later. It wasn’t until his fourth appearance that Zappe finally regressed, stalling out in a dreadful Monday night loss to Chicago. Mac Jones played every snap for the rest of the season after that and should be the Patriots’ starter in 2023. But Belichick’s end-of-season comments left the door open for Zappe to challenge him in training camp.
RB Kevin Harris (Round 6): D+
Similar story to Strong. Harris had a nice game against Arizona in Week 14 but otherwise contributed little, playing 53 offensive snaps and carrying 18 times for 52 yards and one touchdown. Quiet rookie seasons aren’t uncommon for Patriots running backs, though, as most need extra time to adjust to the NFL game. The backfield moves New England makes this offseason will illustrate how much confidence it has in Strong and Harris to improve in Year 2.
Sixth-round defensive tackle Sam Roberts spent the entire season on the 53-man roster but hardly played, with the last of his 40 defensive snaps coming in Week 7. Hines and Stueber didn’t play at all, with the former landing on injured reserve with a mysterious ailment in October and the latter spending all season on the non-football injury list.
Undrafted rookie Brenden Schooler was a standout contributor on special teams, with fellow UDFAs DaMarcus Mitchell and Raleigh Webb playing large roles in the kicking game, as well.
@CoachGrav
Do you see the patriots going after tremaine Edmonds?
I think he’d make a lot of sense. Edmunds has been consistently productive (five straight seasons with 100-plus tackles) and is much more athletic than New England’s current linebackers. He’ll also be just 25 years old when the season kicks off and is coming off a strong contract year, grading out as Pro Football Focus’s fifth-best linebacker and best ‘backer in coverage.
The Buffalo Bills reportedly aren’t expected to re-sign Edmunds, and I could see the Patriots making a run at him. He might wind up being prohibitively expensive, however. NFL Media’s Tom Pelissero included the two-time Pro Bowler on his list of lesser-known free agents who could command big-money deals.
@pjordan228
Just read Jets plan to release Braxton Berrios. What do you think about a reunion??
Wrote about that possibility in here:
@BruceLampshade
What are we thinking the kicking position will look like next year? Can’t be folk again right?
The Patriots brought in young kickers to challenge Nick Folk in each of the last three offseasons (Justin Rohrwasser, Quinn Nordin, Tristan Vizcaino), and none of them were able to beat out the steady veteran. I expect them to take the same approach this year and wouldn’t be surprised if they drafted a kicker on Day 3.
One prospect who’s on my radar is Michigan’s Jake Moody, who played for the Patriots’ coaching staff at the East-West Shrine Bowl and was the co-MVP of that all-star game. Moody has a big leg — two of his four Shrine Bowl makes were from 50-plus yards — can handle kickoff duties and comes from one of the Patriots’ favorite programs. New England has selected at least one Wolverine in each of the last four NFL drafts.
Eventually, one of these young guns will overtake the 38-year-old Folk, whose accuracy wavered a bit this season. He remained an above-average kicker who converted 86.5% of his field-goal attempts, but his four misses from inside 50 yards equaled his total from the previous three seasons combined.
I’m also interested to see how the Patriots proceed at punter following Jake Bailey’s 2022 struggles and subsequent suspension. Will they look to replace the 2020 All-Pro? Long snapper Joe Cardona also is an impending free agent, so this specialist group could look substantially different next season.
@PatsDraftClass
Thoughts on Jake Bobo late round pick? We desperately need size in our WR room and he’s 6’5 and a huge pats fan. Hate for him to slip to someone else
That would be a fun story. Bobo, a tall receiver out of UCLA, grew up in North Andover, Mass., and played his high school ball at Belmont Hill. The Patriots spent a week coaching him in the Shrine Bowl, so they should have a good idea by now of whether he’d fit in their system.
Bobo has a wealth of experience (46 appearances across stints at Duke and UCLA), put up solid numbers last season (57-817-7) and played for a friend of Belichick in Chip Kelly. His speed, quickness and route-running are considered below-average, though, with some draft analysts projecting a potential move to tight end. After measuring in at 6-foot-4, 206 pounds at the combine, he’d have to put on some serious weight to play there for New England.
But there are some intriguing aspects of Bobo’s game. If the Patriots like what they saw from him during Shrine Bowl week, he could be worth a flier as a late-round pick or undrafted free agent.
