Memorial Day weekend marks the first real checkpoint in the Major League Baseball season.
It’s the unofficial start of summer, with which baseball is synonymous, and there’s a large enough sample size to begin making accurate (or so we think) evaluations based on performance to date. The Boston Red Sox have played 50 games ahead of MDW, meaning we’re almost one-third of the way through the 2023 campaign.
The Red Sox are a tricky case, though, because their true identity remains a mystery. They’ve assembled winning streaks and endured losing streaks, making for a circuitous route to a 26-24 record. Boston entered Friday sitting 10 games behind the division-leading Tampa Bay Rays in the American League East and 2 1/2 games back of the AL’s second wild-card spot. The playoffs are within reach; they’ll just need to stretch their arms.
Unfortunately for the Red Sox, they trended in the wrong direction in Anaheim, dropping three straight to the Los Angeles Angels. Boston enters a three-game series with the Arizona Diamondbacks having lost four in a row, another confounding stretch after the Red Sox won four straight against the Seattle Mariners and San Diego Padres.
All told, Thursday’s off-day came at the perfect time. The Red Sox had an opportunity to clear their heads in the desert before wrapping up their West Coast swing. Boston returns to Fenway Park next Tuesday, after another off-day Monday, for a seven-game homestand.
Red Sox odds (May 26)*
To win World Series: +5000
To win American League: +2500
To win AL East: +4000
To make playoffs: Yes +320, No -460
Boston’s odds in the World Series futures market dipped from our last check-in (from +6000), while its odds to win the AL East soared (from +3000). This, again, speaks to the challenge of playing in the best division in baseball, led by the team with MLB’s best record (Tampa Bay Rays, 37-15).
The Red Sox’s most likely path to reaching the playoffs clearly involves a wild-card berth, although they’ll need to improve their performance over the final two-thirds of the season to achieve that reality. Boston’s postseason odds dropped from +220. So, now might be a decent opportunity to buy stock.
*Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook
Probable pitchers
— Friday, May 26 (9:40 p.m. ET at Diamondbacks): Chris Sale, LHP (4-2, 5.01 ERA) vs. Brandon Pfaadt, RHP (0-1, 7.65 ERA)
— Saturday, May 27 (7:15 p.m. ET at Diamondbacks): Garrett Whitlock, RHP (1-2, 6.19 ERA) vs. TBD
— Sunday, May 28 (4:10 p.m. ET at Diamondbacks): Tanner Houck, RHP (3-3, 4.99 ERA) vs. Merrill Kelly, RHP (5-3, 2.98 ERA)
Storylines to watch
1. Where’s the offense?
Boston’s bats carried the team for prolonged stretches while the starting pitching struggled out of the gate. A dismal offensive showing over the past week sent the Red Sox back to the drawing board, though. They scored just four runs over their last 41 innings.
“I think we do some things really well as a club. Obviously, we’re an aggressive group. We hit the fastball pretty well,” Red Sox hitting coach Peter Fatse said after Wednesday night’s loss to the Angels, per MLB.com. “I think teams have started to mix and match a little bit, the last few games specifically. Just the regular ebb and flow of the season, things we’re aware of and things we’re game planning for.”
2. Chris Sale, ace again?
A few bad starts still drag down Sale’s season-long numbers. But there’s no denying he’s beginning to look like, well, Chris Sale. He’s allowed just seven earned runs in 27 1/3 innings over his last four starts, striking out 32 and walking just three while lowering his ERA from 8.22 to 5.01. Even if Sale doesn’t dominate moving forward, the Red Sox’s rotation is exponentially better when he’s healthy and effective. And stuff-wise, he’s passing the eye test.
3. Time for Garrett Whitlock to shine?
The Red Sox alleviated their rotation logjam, sending Nick Pivetta and Corey Kluber to the bullpen. That means both Whitlock and Tanner Houck have golden opportunities to cement themselves as starters. Whitlock hasn’t pitched since April 22 due to elbow ulnar neuritis that landed him on the injured list, but he’s slated to return Saturday. It’ll be interesting to see how long it takes for the Red Sox to reconsider his role if he struggles upon rejoining the rotation. Obviously, Boston is hoping it doesn’t come to that. The ball is in Whitlock’s court.
